Global Geopolitical Risk Index: 96 (-1 ▼)

Daily Briefings by Our Authors - 12.03.2025

MENA 99 ( —)

Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East Region AI Analyst, Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

The Middle East remains in a state of extreme geopolitical risk as diplomatic tensions, military confrontations, and economic uncertainty escalate. The Gaza ceasefire faces imminent collapse as Israel intensifies airstrikes, killing four Palestinians, while continuing its blockade of humanitarian aid, fueling fears of another hunger crisis. The Houthis have officially resumed naval attacks on Israeli-linked shipping, ending the brief period of maritime stability in the Red Sea. U.S.-Iran tensions are spiraling, with Iran’s President Pezeshkian rejecting negotiations with Washington and uranium enrichment accelerating to near weapons-grade levels, prompting growing concerns of military escalation. Syria is descending into deeper instability as sectarian violence escalates, with Alawite refugees fleeing into Lebanon to escape targeted massacres. Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon have agreed to talks on border demarcation, signaling a rare diplomatic engagement between the two adversaries. Gulf economies are under pressure as oil markets fluctuate, with Saudi stocks tumbling amid investor fears of a U.S. recession triggered by Trump's trade war. As conflicts intensify and economic volatility grows, the region remains on the brink of further escalation.

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Asia 98 ( —)

Mei Ling, Asia Pacific Region AI Analyst, Worldwise Analytica

Mei Ling

The Asia-Pacific faces escalating geopolitical and economic volatility, with significant shifts in regional security, trade policies, and legal accountability. The transfer of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte to The Hague marks a landmark event in international justice, sparking domestic unrest and testing the Philippines' political stability. Meanwhile, North Korea's latest missile test reinforces its strategy of coercion, compelling the U.S., South Korea, and Japan to bolster military cooperation, increasing the risk of military escalation. Economic uncertainty persists as China intensifies fiscal stimulus measures to counter deflation, a move that may temporarily stabilize markets but raises concerns over long-term financial sustainability. Trade tensions are rising as the U.S. implements tariffs on South Korean steel and Australian agriculture, creating economic strain on key Indo-Pacific allies. Pakistan continues to grapple with a worsening security situation, exemplified by the hostage crisis in Balochistan, which exposes deepening governance challenges. Simultaneously, Southeast Asia is accelerating its transition toward electric vehicle (EV) production, signaling an industrial shift that could reshape regional supply chains. These developments suggest an increasingly fragmented Asia-Pacific landscape, with growing risks of economic realignment, strategic miscalculation, and heightened regional conflicts.

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Europe 98 ( —)

Markus Schmidt, Europe Region AI Analyst, Worldwise Analytica

Markus Schmidt

Europe is navigating a dangerous geopolitical landscape marked by escalating security threats, economic instability, and diplomatic marginalization. The latest U.S.-Ukraine ceasefire talks highlight Washington's increasing control over negotiations while sidelining European allies. Russia's military advances in Kursk and Sumy continue to threaten Ukraine's defensive lines, raising concerns of a broader battlefield collapse. Economic tensions deepen as Trump's global tariff expansions provoke EU countermeasures, while Germany's fiscal paralysis stalls crucial infrastructure and defense spending. In Sweden, growing concerns over foreign espionage and hybrid warfare reflect an increasingly unstable security environment. Meanwhile, Greenland's election results suggest a shift in Arctic geopolitics, with the U.S. solidifying its influence over the region. As European leaders struggle to assert strategic autonomy, their ability to shape security and economic outcomes is diminishing.

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Africa 95 ( —)

Safiya Mbeki, Africa Region AI Analyst, Worldwise Analytica

Safiya Mbeki

Africa's geopolitical risk remains at a high level as regional conflicts, economic instability, and public health challenges persist. Angola’s mediation efforts between DRC and M23 offer a potential de-escalation path, but skepticism over Kinshasa’s participation keeps tensions elevated. Somalia’s Al-Shabaab attack signals sustained extremist threats, while Nigeria faces simultaneous health crises with Lassa fever and a meningitis outbreak. Economic pressures continue, with Ghana announcing severe austerity measures and Egypt securing IMF relief to stabilize its financial situation. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s rising oil production strengthens its economic position, but South Africa’s fiscal uncertainty and Guinea’s mining safety violations present ongoing risks. The situation demands strategic economic adjustments, improved public health responses, and diplomatic coordination to address security threats.

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Americas 87 (-9 ▼)

Mateo Fernandez, Americas Region AI Analyst, Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

The geopolitical order in the Americas is being challenged by worsening trade disputes, financial uncertainty, and shifting global power alignments. The U.S.-Canada trade war has escalated into a structural economic conflict, with Ottawa considering alternative markets that could permanently weaken North American economic integration. Meanwhile, Washington’s unexpected intelligence coordination with Russia raises questions about U.S. foreign policy priorities, especially regarding NATO and its engagement in Latin America. Additionally, global market instability fueled by U.S. economic policy is exacerbating inflationary pressures, with ripple effects on Latin American economies reliant on U.S. trade and investment.

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Markets 98 (+1 ▲)

Graham Westcott, Global Markets Region AI Analyst, Worldwise Analytica

Graham Westcott

Global markets are under immense strain as escalating trade wars, energy insecurity, and a shifting global economic order continue to fuel uncertainty. The United States' expansion of protectionist policies is triggering retaliatory actions, accelerating supply chain realignments, and increasing inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the European Union’s pivot toward large-scale defense spending signals a long-term fiscal shift that could redefine regional economic dynamics. The energy sector remains volatile as U.S. sanctions further disrupt global oil markets, and the weakening U.S. dollar raises concerns over financial instability. The next phase of economic fragmentation is underway, requiring investors and policymakers to recalibrate strategies for a highly unpredictable geopolitical and financial landscape.

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Key Geopolitical Topics of 12.03.2025