Global Risk Indexes (12-03-2025)

Global 96 (-1 ▼)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 95 ( —)
AMERs 87 (-9 ▼)
Markets 98 (+1 ▲)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Middle East on the Edge: Gaza Crisis Deepens, Houthis Resume Naval Attacks, and Iran Defies U.S. Pressure

The Middle East is witnessing a dangerous escalation of crises, with conflicts intensifying across multiple fronts. The fragile Gaza ceasefire is unraveling as Israeli airstrikes killed four Palestinians in central Gaza, heightening fears of a return to full-scale war. Meanwhile, Hamas has accused Israel of deliberately creating a famine in Gaza by cutting electricity and blocking humanitarian aid. With ceasefire negotiations in Doha yielding no breakthrough, the risk of renewed conflict is rising.

In Yemen, the Houthis have officially resumed naval attacks on Israeli-linked shipping, marking a significant escalation in regional hostilities. The Iran-backed group warned that their blockade would remain in effect until Israel lifts restrictions on Gaza aid. Given past Houthi attacks that disrupted global trade, shipping companies may be forced to reroute vessels, increasing transport costs and fueling supply chain disruptions.

U.S.-Iran relations have reached another crisis point. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has rejected negotiations with the U.S., telling Trump to ‘do whatever the hell you want.’ Tehran has also dramatically accelerated uranium enrichment to 60% purity—dangerously close to weapons-grade levels—prompting renewed international concerns over a potential nuclear crisis. The U.S. and Israel have intensified their rhetoric, with Washington considering additional sanctions and Israel expanding covert operations against Iranian-linked military sites in Syria.

Meanwhile, Syria is facing its deadliest sectarian violence in years. Alawite civilians are fleeing en masse into Lebanon, with entire families targeted for execution by rival factions. Reports indicate that more than 1,200 civilians have been killed in the latest round of violence, and the UN has accused both pro-government and anti-government forces of mass killings. Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa has promised to hold perpetrators accountable but has not ruled out the involvement of his own security forces. The growing instability threatens to further fragment Syria’s already fragile political structure.

In a rare diplomatic development, Israel and Lebanon have agreed to hold talks on border demarcation. The U.S. and France are mediating, aiming to resolve outstanding territorial disputes. However, Israel's continued airstrikes in southern Lebanon, citing Hezbollah activity, could derail these negotiations.

On the economic front, Gulf markets are facing turbulence as fears of a U.S. recession grow. Trump’s ongoing trade war has rattled investors, with Saudi stocks experiencing sharp declines. Meanwhile, oil prices remain volatile, with Brent crude hovering at $70 per barrel despite OPEC planning to increase output in April. The UAE’s ADNOC, however, is making a major push into the U.S. natural gas market, signaling a strategic expansion amid global energy uncertainty.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(12-03-2025)

The Middle East remains in a state of extreme geopolitical risk as diplomatic tensions, military confrontations, and economic uncertainty escalate. The Gaza ceasefire faces imminent collapse as Israel intensifies airstrikes, killing four Palestinians, while continuing its blockade of humanitarian aid, fueling fears of another hunger crisis. The Houthis have officially resumed naval attacks on Israeli-linked shipping, ending the brief period of maritime stability in the Red Sea. U.S.-Iran tensions are spiraling, with Iran’s President Pezeshkian rejecting negotiations with Washington and uranium enrichment accelerating to near weapons-grade levels, prompting growing concerns of military escalation. Syria is descending into deeper instability as sectarian violence escalates, with Alawite refugees fleeing into Lebanon to escape targeted massacres. Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon have agreed to talks on border demarcation, signaling a rare diplomatic engagement between the two adversaries. Gulf economies are under pressure as oil markets fluctuate, with Saudi stocks tumbling amid investor fears of a U.S. recession triggered by Trump's trade war. As conflicts intensify and economic volatility grows, the region remains on the brink of further escalation.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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