Global Risk Indexes (11-03-2025)

Global 97 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 95 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 96 ( —)
Markets 97 (+1 ▲)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Middle East at Breaking Point: Gaza Crisis Deepens, Red Sea Threats Escalate, and U.S.-Iran Tensions Soar

The Middle East is experiencing a dangerous convergence of crises, as diplomatic tensions, economic pressures, and military threats escalate across the region. The fragile Gaza ceasefire is now at serious risk, with Israel halting aid shipments, leading to severe food shortages and the closure of multiple bakeries. The suspension of fuel deliveries has also caused critical electricity cuts, which could deprive large parts of Gaza of clean water. The United Nations has warned that this blockade could trigger another hunger crisis, with humanitarian agencies accusing Israel of weaponizing aid to pressure Hamas into further concessions. Meanwhile, ongoing ceasefire talks remain deadlocked, with Hamas rejecting Israel’s demands for unconditional hostage releases.

In Yemen, tensions in the Red Sea are poised to escalate further. The Houthis’ four-day ultimatum to Israel over aid restrictions in Gaza is set to expire, raising concerns that naval attacks against commercial shipping will resume. Given previous Houthi strikes on international vessels, any renewed hostilities could significantly disrupt global trade and energy supply routes.

U.S.-Iran relations have reached another critical moment. The Biden-era nuclear deal is effectively dead, and Tehran’s uranium enrichment has accelerated dramatically. With Iran now producing uranium at 60% purity—dangerously close to weapons-grade levels—the U.N. Security Council has called an emergency meeting. The U.S. and European powers are considering triggering the ‘snapback’ of international sanctions, which could devastate Iran’s already struggling economy. Meanwhile, Israel has intensified its covert operations against Iranian-linked military sites in Syria, further heightening regional tensions.

Syria is experiencing its deadliest violence since the fall of Bashar al-Assad, with over 1,000 civilians reportedly killed in sectarian clashes. The Islamist-led government claims to have completed its military operation against Alawite insurgents, but the scale of the violence suggests deep instability. The Syrian president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has vowed to punish those responsible, even among his own allies, in a bid to maintain control and appease international critics. However, the brutal crackdown on Alawite villages has drawn widespread condemnation, including from the U.S. and Germany, raising questions about the government’s ability to maintain unity and stability.

In Iraq, the energy crisis is deepening following Washington’s decision to block Baghdad from paying Iran for electricity imports. With Iraq receiving up to 50 million cubic meters of gas per day from Iran, this move threatens to cut the country’s electricity output by a third. In response, Iraq is scrambling to secure alternative supplies, signing a deal to lease a floating LNG terminal that will import gas from Qatar and Oman. However, this transition will take months, leaving Iraq vulnerable to power shortages that could trigger public unrest.

Meanwhile, U.S. foreign policy priorities are shifting. Washington is pressuring Ukraine to enter peace negotiations with Russia, with talks taking place in Saudi Arabia. The White House has already halted military aid and intelligence-sharing with Kyiv, signaling a recalibration of U.S. global strategy. This shift could have significant consequences for Middle Eastern security dynamics, as Washington’s focus moves away from the region.

On the economic front, uncertainty continues to weigh on Gulf markets. Saudi Aramco has warned that global energy transition plans are failing, emphasizing the need for continued fossil fuel investment. At the same time, U.S. tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican goods are driving volatility, with Saudi stocks reacting negatively to trade uncertainty. Meanwhile, oil prices have remained unstable, with Brent crude hovering at $70 per barrel as OPEC considers adjusting production levels to stabilize markets.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(11-03-2025)

The Middle East faces growing instability as conflicts, economic pressures, and geopolitical maneuvering intensify. The Gaza ceasefire is at severe risk as Israel halts aid and fuel shipments, causing food shortages and electricity cuts that threaten a humanitarian collapse. The Houthis’ four-day ultimatum to Israel over aid restrictions is set to expire, increasing the likelihood of renewed naval attacks in the Red Sea. U.S.-Iran tensions have escalated with Washington pushing for renewed sanctions while Iran accelerates uranium enrichment, prompting an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting. Syria is experiencing one of its deadliest periods since the fall of Assad, with over 1,000 civilians killed in sectarian clashes, raising concerns about the Islamist-led government’s ability to maintain stability. Iraq is scrambling to secure alternative gas imports as the U.S. cuts its ability to pay Iran for energy, threatening a third of its electricity supply. Meanwhile, Washington is pushing Ukraine toward a peace settlement with Russia, signaling shifting U.S. foreign policy priorities. Economic instability is deepening, with Gulf markets reacting negatively to U.S. tariffs and Saudi Aramco warning that global energy transition plans are failing. The confluence of diplomatic tensions, economic uncertainty, and military threats keeps the region at extreme geopolitical risk.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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