Global Risk Indexes (07-03-2025)

Global 97 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 96 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 96 ( —)
Markets 98 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Middle East Tensions Explode: Gaza Siege, U.S.-Iran Confrontation, and Syria’s Internal Struggles

The Middle East is experiencing a dangerous escalation in geopolitical tensions. The Gaza ceasefire is on the brink of collapse as Israel continues to impose a total blockade while Hamas accuses the United States of backing Netanyahu’s hardline stance. President Trump’s latest threats against Hamas and the Palestinian population have drawn widespread condemnation, raising fears that an Israeli military operation could soon resume.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is preparing to escalate its confrontation with Iran. The Trump administration is reviewing all existing sanctions waivers for Iran, signaling a potential end to exemptions that allow Iraq and other countries to conduct limited trade with Tehran. In addition, Washington is exploring plans to inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea, a move that could significantly disrupt Iran’s ability to export crude and further weaken its economy.

In Syria, the country is facing its most serious internal security crisis since the ousting of Bashar al-Assad. Pro-Assad militias launched deadly attacks against government forces in Jableh, killing at least 13 security personnel in a well-coordinated assault. The attack highlights the persistent resistance from Assad loyalists and raises concerns about the stability of the new Syrian government.

In Sudan, the government has filed a case against the UAE at the International Court of Justice, accusing Abu Dhabi of supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in committing genocide in Darfur. The case, if accepted, could deepen tensions between Sudan and the Gulf states, further complicating diplomatic relations in the region.

On the economic front, Gulf financial markets continue to struggle due to growing uncertainty over U.S. trade policies. Saudi Aramco has reported declining profits and is now considering a bid for BP’s Castrol business, marking a strategic shift as it seeks new revenue streams. At the same time, oil prices remain volatile as OPEC increases production amid ongoing trade tensions.

In Israel, settler expansion in the West Bank is accelerating, with new outposts appearing in the Jordan Valley. The Israeli military has been expanding its control over key areas, raising fears that settlement expansion is being used as a de facto annexation strategy. This development could trigger renewed Palestinian resistance and international condemnation.

Gaza Ceasefire on the Verge of Collapse

Hamas has accused the U.S. of backing Netanyahu’s hardline stance while Trump has issued new threats against the Palestinian leadership. With Israel tightening its blockade, fears of an imminent military escalation are growing.

U.S. Considers Inspections of Iranian Oil Tankers

The Trump administration is weighing new measures to delay Iranian oil shipments at sea. If implemented, this policy could disrupt global energy markets and provoke retaliation from Tehran.

Syria Faces Internal Security Challenges

Pro-Assad fighters have launched deadly attacks against government forces, exposing the fragile nature of Syria’s post-Assad political order. The new government’s ability to maintain stability is now being tested.

Sudan Accuses UAE of Supporting Genocide

Khartoum has filed a case at the ICJ against the UAE, accusing it of arming the RSF in Darfur. This case could strain Sudan’s relations with Gulf states and lead to broader diplomatic consequences.

Strategic Outlook

The Middle East is entering a period of heightened instability. The Gaza ceasefire is in jeopardy, U.S.-Iran tensions are escalating, and Syria is struggling with internal security challenges. Meanwhile, Sudan’s legal action against the UAE adds a new layer of diplomatic complexity. Economic pressures in the Gulf continue to mount, and Israel’s settlement expansion is raising the risk of further conflict in the West Bank. The coming days will be critical in determining whether the region moves toward renewed warfare or fragile diplomatic containment.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(07-03-2025)

The Middle East remains at extreme geopolitical risk as multiple crises unfold simultaneously. The Gaza ceasefire is on the verge of collapse, with Israel tightening its blockade while Hamas accuses the U.S. of supporting Netanyahu’s hardline approach. Trump’s threats against Hamas and the people of Gaza have further escalated tensions, increasing the risk of renewed hostilities. The U.S. is also reviewing all existing sanctions waivers for Iran while simultaneously considering inspections of Iranian oil tankers, marking a new phase in its 'maximum pressure' campaign. Meanwhile, Syria has entered a period of heightened instability, with remnants of pro-Assad militias launching deadly attacks against the new government’s security forces in Jableh. In Sudan, the government has filed a case at the International Court of Justice against the UAE, accusing it of supporting genocide in Darfur, which could lead to further diplomatic rifts in the region. The Gulf’s financial markets continue to struggle amid U.S. trade tensions, while Saudi Aramco considers a strategic bid for BP’s Castrol business. With deepening conflicts, shifting alliances, and economic pressures mounting, the region remains at its highest level of instability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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