Global Risk Indexes (04-03-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 97 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Middle East on the Brink: West Bank Expulsions, Gaza Aid Blockade, and Iran’s Growing Military Ties with Russia

The Middle East is facing a convergence of military escalation, economic crises, and shifting diplomatic alignments. Israeli forces have intensified military operations in the West Bank, demolishing homes and clearing entire refugee camps, with Nur Shams being the latest to be emptied of its inhabitants. This large-scale clearance campaign has drawn international condemnation and is widely viewed as a test for broader Israeli plans to reshape the West Bank.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza has deepened, as Israel blocks all aid deliveries amid stalled ceasefire talks. The United Nations and humanitarian organizations have warned of dire consequences, as food, medicine, and fuel supplies are running dangerously low, leading to increased desperation among Gaza’s already displaced population.

At the same time, Iran is facing mounting economic and political challenges. New intelligence reports confirm deeper defense cooperation between Tehran and Moscow, with Russian missile specialists having visited Iranian facilities. This revelation, coupled with the ousting of Iran’s Economy Minister amid a worsening currency crisis, underscores the growing internal and external pressure on the Iranian regime.

In the energy sector, OPEC has announced a planned increase in oil production, responding to U.S. pressure and shifting market conditions. However, the move has triggered a decline in oil prices amid fears of oversupply, with additional pressure from U.S. tariff measures against China, Mexico, and Canada further complicating the global trade landscape.

The U.S.-Israel military alliance continues to strengthen, with new arms deals and intelligence-sharing agreements reinforcing Tel Aviv’s military capabilities. Washington’s removal of certain restrictions on Israeli military operations has raised concerns over the unchecked expansion of Israeli security measures in both Gaza and the West Bank.

On the diplomatic front, Egypt has unveiled a counterproposal to Trump’s controversial Gaza displacement plan. The Egyptian plan, which is being presented at the Arab League summit, seeks to sideline Hamas while establishing an internationally backed governance body for Gaza’s reconstruction. This move highlights growing regional opposition to U.S. plans that involve forced population movements.

Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia is reassessing its economic strategy as it navigates declining oil revenues and restructures foreign consultancy partnerships. Riyadh’s review of its relationship with global firms like PwC signals a broader effort to exert greater control over Vision 2030 projects and reduce dependence on external advisors.

Israeli Military Expulsions in the West Bank Signal a Larger Strategy

The Israeli military has forcibly displaced thousands of Palestinians from the Nur Shams refugee camp, raising fears that similar actions will be taken across other camps in the West Bank. With no clear plans for resettlement, the operation has drawn significant international criticism.

Gaza’s Humanitarian Crisis Worsens

Israel’s blockade on aid deliveries has left humanitarian organizations scrambling to prevent food and medicine shortages in Gaza. With more than 300 aid trucks stuck at the Egyptian border, UN officials warn that conditions could deteriorate rapidly, leading to widespread malnutrition and disease outbreaks.

Iran’s Military Ties with Russia Deepen

Recent intelligence leaks confirm that Russian missile specialists have visited Iranian military sites, reinforcing speculation that Tehran is expanding its missile program with Moscow’s support. This revelation comes as Iran faces a worsening economic crisis, with inflation soaring and its currency plummeting.

OPEC Increases Oil Production Amid Market Volatility

The decision by OPEC to raise output has led to an immediate decline in oil prices, exacerbated by concerns over U.S. tariff measures. Energy analysts warn that the move could trigger further instability in global oil markets.

U.S.-Israel Military Partnership Strengthens

New arms deals and intelligence-sharing agreements between Washington and Tel Aviv highlight the deepening military cooperation between the two allies. The removal of previous restrictions on Israel’s use of U.S. military aid has raised concerns about the potential for further escalation in Gaza and the West Bank.

Strategic Outlook

The Middle East is at a critical turning point, with Israeli military operations intensifying, Iran’s military expansion growing, and diplomatic realignments reshaping regional alliances. The Gaza ceasefire remains fragile, while U.S. policy shifts on energy and military aid could have long-term implications for regional stability. With the humanitarian crisis worsening and economic pressures mounting, the coming weeks will be decisive in shaping the region’s geopolitical trajectory.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(04-03-2025)

The Middle East is experiencing an intensification of military conflicts, diplomatic maneuvers, and economic pressures, keeping the region at its highest risk level. Israel has expanded its military operations in the West Bank, emptying refugee camps and sparking fears of a broader clearance campaign, which could lead to mass displacements similar to Gaza. Meanwhile, the Gaza humanitarian crisis is worsening as Israel blocks aid deliveries while ceasefire negotiations remain stalled. Iran is under growing economic and political pressure, with new revelations of its deepening defense ties with Russia and the removal of its Economy Minister amid a currency crisis. OPEC+ has moved forward with an oil output increase, but concerns over a potential market oversupply and U.S. tariff escalations are affecting global energy stability. The U.S.-Israel military alliance continues to strengthen, with new arms deals and intelligence-sharing agreements solidifying their strategic partnership. Egypt is presenting a diplomatic counterproposal to Trump’s controversial Gaza displacement plan, gaining regional support for an alternative reconstruction framework. Saudi Arabia is reassessing its economic partnerships, navigating declining oil revenues and restructuring its foreign consultancy agreements. With military operations escalating, economic tensions deepening, and diplomatic realignments taking shape, the region remains on the brink of further instability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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