Global Risk Indexes (25-02-2025)

Global 99 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Middle East in Crisis: Israeli Military Entrenches in West Bank, U.S. Sanctions Hit Iran, and Global Energy Politics Shift

The Middle East is witnessing a rapid escalation in conflict and geopolitical maneuvering. Israel’s military expansion in the West Bank—demolishing entire refugee camps and carving new roadways for long-term occupation—has led to mass displacement and international condemnation. The Gaza ceasefire remains on the verge of collapse as Israel delays the release of Palestinian prisoners, further straining hostage negotiations with Hamas. Meanwhile, the U.S. has escalated its 'maximum pressure' campaign on Iran, imposing new sanctions on its oil industry in an effort to choke Tehran’s economic resilience. Oil prices are reacting to these developments, with Brent crude and WTI rising on supply concerns. In the broader energy sector, Turkey is expanding its natural gas network, finalizing a long-term deal with Turkmenistan and seeking new exploration opportunities in Somalia. Meanwhile, Russia’s diplomatic engagement with Iran continues, with Lavrov arriving in Tehran to discuss security and trade cooperation. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is deepening defense ties with the U.S., a move that could shape the regional balance of power. With multiple flashpoints intensifying, the Middle East remains on the brink of widespread conflict.

West Bank: Israel’s Military Presence Becomes Permanent

Israeli forces have begun a systematic demolition of refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarm, displacing tens of thousands of Palestinians. Bulldozers are carving wide roadways through the camps, a tactic previously employed in Gaza, suggesting a long-term military presence. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has ordered troops to prepare for 'a prolonged stay' in these areas, reinforcing speculation that Israel is shifting toward a policy of permanent occupation. The Palestinian Authority has condemned the move as 'a war crime and forced displacement', while international human rights groups are calling for urgent intervention. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for armed Palestinian resistance to escalate.

Gaza Ceasefire at Risk as Prisoner Dispute Escalates

The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is under increasing strain. Hamas has accused Israel of violating the terms of the truce by delaying the release of Palestinian prisoners, which was supposed to be part of the hostage exchange deal. In response, Hamas has threatened to halt further hostage releases, putting negotiations in jeopardy. If this impasse is not resolved soon, the ceasefire could fully collapse, leading to renewed fighting.

U.S. Expands Sanctions on Iran’s Oil Industry

The U.S. Treasury has imposed new sanctions on over 30 Iranian oil brokers, shipping companies, and tanker operators, targeting the networks Tehran uses to bypass restrictions. President Trump has stated that his administration aims to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero, reigniting his 'maximum pressure' campaign. However, Iran has adapted by selling oil through Chinese and UAE-based middlemen, using yuan-based transactions to evade U.S. regulators. With Iran’s crude exports reaching their highest levels since 2018, it remains uncertain whether these new sanctions will significantly reduce Tehran’s revenue.

Russia-Iran Diplomatic Coordination Intensifies

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has arrived in Tehran for high-level talks with Iranian officials. The meeting comes as Moscow and Tehran deepen their economic and military cooperation, particularly in response to Western sanctions. With Iran and Russia both facing economic isolation, their alliance has become a key factor in regional power dynamics. The discussions are expected to cover arms deals, energy coordination, and joint strategies against U.S. sanctions.

Saudi-U.S. Defense Ties Strengthen

Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman has met with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in Washington to discuss strengthening military cooperation. The visit underscores Riyadh’s commitment to maintaining close security ties with Washington amid rising regional tensions. With Saudi Arabia playing a key role in U.S. diplomatic efforts regarding Ukraine and Russia, its defense partnership with the U.S. remains strategically significant.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(25-02-2025)

The Middle East is experiencing an escalation of military, economic, and diplomatic tensions. The Israeli military is entrenching itself in the West Bank, demolishing entire refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarm, signaling a shift toward long-term occupation. The Gaza ceasefire remains fragile, with disputes over hostage exchanges and Israeli delays in prisoner releases threatening to collapse negotiations. The U.S. has ramped up its 'maximum pressure' campaign against Iran, imposing new sanctions on its oil industry, while Tehran continues to evade restrictions through its covert trading networks. Oil prices are reacting to these shifts, with Brent crude rising amid supply concerns. Meanwhile, Turkey is expanding its energy strategy, finalizing a long-term gas deal with Turkmenistan while also pushing for oil and gas exploration in Somalia. Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov is in Tehran, reinforcing the growing strategic ties between Moscow and Iran, while Saudi Arabia is strengthening its defense cooperation with Washington. With active military escalations, economic realignments, and shifting global alliances, the region is at an extremely high level of geopolitical risk.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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