Global Risk Indexes (24-02-2025)

Global 99 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Middle East Unravels: West Bank Warzone, Hezbollah Mobilizes, and U.S.-Iran Energy Battle Intensifies

The Middle East is experiencing a dangerous confluence of military, diplomatic, and economic crises, with the potential for widespread conflict at its highest point in months. The Gaza ceasefire is hanging by a thread as Israel refuses to release Palestinian prisoners until Hamas changes its hostage handover methods. The West Bank has effectively become a warzone, with Israeli battle tanks deployed for the first time in over 20 years as the military expands its crackdown on Palestinian militant groups. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s leadership is attempting to consolidate power after Hassan Nasrallah’s funeral, but Israel continues targeted strikes against the group’s positions. The U.S. is ramping up its ‘maximum pressure’ campaign on Iran, using Iraq’s Kurdish oil exports as a weapon against Tehran. Syria’s new rulers are seeking legitimacy by engaging with China and Jordan, but their exclusion of Kurdish and opposition groups raises doubts about their commitment to an inclusive transition. Gulf economies remain active in global investment deals, particularly in agriculture and AI, while geopolitical uncertainty weighs on markets.

Gaza Ceasefire in Crisis: Israel-Hamas Dispute Escalates

The already fragile Gaza truce is now at serious risk as Israel delays the release of 620 Palestinian prisoners, citing Hamas’ ‘humiliating’ hostage handovers. The U.S. has fully backed Israel’s stance, further complicating diplomatic mediation efforts. Hamas has accused Israel of violating the ceasefire terms and is threatening to halt hostage releases in response. With the second phase of negotiations uncertain, the risk of a breakdown is increasing, which could lead to a resumption of large-scale fighting.

West Bank: A New Front in the Conflict?

In a dramatic escalation, Israel has deployed battle tanks into the West Bank for the first time in two decades as part of an expanded military crackdown on Palestinian militant groups. With thousands of Palestinians displaced, the situation is becoming increasingly volatile. Israeli hardliners are openly advocating for the annexation of parts of the West Bank, raising concerns of a deeper conflict. Meanwhile, Palestinian Authority officials have warned that continued Israeli military actions could trigger a third Intifada.

Hezbollah’s Next Move: Retaliation or Political Survival?

Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate after Israel’s continued airstrikes in Lebanon, even as it struggles to recover from heavy losses in last year’s war. The group’s new leader, Naim Qassem, has declared that Hezbollah will ‘choose when to fire and when to be patient.’ Despite a massive turnout at Nasrallah’s funeral, Hezbollah’s political position in Lebanon is weakened, as it faces challenges in controlling the new government. Iran continues to back Hezbollah, but its focus is also shifting toward countering U.S. pressure in Iraq.

U.S.-Iran Energy War: Iraq’s Oil Politics at the Center

The Trump administration is applying intense pressure on Iraq to restart Kurdish oil exports, aiming to reduce Iran’s regional influence. Baghdad, however, faces a difficult balancing act, as Tehran is likely to retaliate if it perceives Iraq’s decision as siding with Washington. The potential resumption of Kurdish oil exports would not only reshape Iraq’s economic landscape but could also lead to increased Iranian-backed militia activity in Iraq and Syria.

Syria’s Political Transition: A Fragile Process

Syria’s new leadership is attempting to gain international legitimacy, with President Ahmed al-Sharaa engaging with China and Jordan. However, the upcoming national dialogue conference has been criticized for excluding Kurdish and opposition groups. The EU’s decision to suspend some sanctions on Syria indicates a possible shift in Western policy, but concerns remain about the new leadership’s Islamist affiliations and long-term stability.

Economic Moves: Gulf Expands Global Investments

Saudi Arabia has secured an 80% controlling stake in Olam Agri, a major global grains supplier, as part of its long-term food security strategy. Meanwhile, the UAE has committed $40 billion in investments in Italy, strengthening its presence in AI, renewable energy, and defense industries. These deals underscore Gulf states’ growing geopolitical influence through strategic economic expansion.

Strategic Outlook

The Middle East is now at an extremely dangerous crossroads. The Gaza ceasefire is nearing collapse, the West Bank is witnessing unprecedented military escalations, and Hezbollah is attempting to navigate a post-Nasrallah power shift. The U.S.-Iran showdown is now playing out through Iraq’s oil sector, adding another layer of geopolitical confrontation. Meanwhile, Syria’s transitional government is seeking legitimacy, but internal divisions and Islamist leadership raise concerns about its long-term viability. With economic uncertainty persisting and multiple conflicts at risk of escalation, the coming days will be crucial in determining whether the region descends into wider war or sees a temporary stabilization.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(24-02-2025)

The Middle East remains at an extremely high level of geopolitical risk, with multiple crises converging into a dangerously unstable situation. The Gaza ceasefire is near collapse as Israel delays the release of Palestinian prisoners, retaliating against Hamas’ controversial hostage handovers. The West Bank is turning into an active war zone, with Israeli battle tanks deployed for the first time in over 20 years. Hezbollah is mobilizing after Nasrallah’s funeral, vowing retaliation against Israel while facing internal political struggles. Iraq is under immense U.S. pressure to restart Kurdish oil exports, intensifying its delicate balancing act between Washington and Tehran. Meanwhile, Syria’s political transition is drawing global attention, with HTS-led authorities set to hold a controversial national dialogue. On the economic front, Saudi Arabia continues to expand its global agricultural investments, while UAE deepens its strategic ties with Italy. With high-stakes diplomatic maneuvers, economic shifts, and active military escalations, the region remains at the edge of a multi-front conflict.

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