Global Risk Indexes (17-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 (+1 ▲)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 98 (+1 ▲)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Hezbollah Threatens War, Israel Expands Strikes, and Iran’s Nuclear Timeline Shrinks as MENA Reaches Crisis Level

The Middle East is edging closer to multiple military confrontations as diplomatic failures, military escalations, and economic pressures converge. In the most significant development of the day, Hezbollah has issued a February 18 deadline for Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon, warning that continued Israeli presence will be considered an 'occupation.' This marks the most direct confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel in years, increasing the likelihood of cross-border attacks or full-scale war. Meanwhile, Israel has launched fresh airstrikes in Lebanon and Gaza, killing three Palestinian police officers and targeting Hezbollah weapons sites in eastern Lebanon. These actions have further destabilized an already fragile ceasefire, with Hamas warning that continued attacks could end negotiations.

Trump’s Gaza Displacement Policy Faces Widespread Resistance

As international condemnation of Trump’s Gaza displacement plan intensifies, Netanyahu has shifted rhetoric, now describing the policy as 'voluntary Palestinian relocation.' This is an attempt to reduce global accusations of ethnic cleansing, yet the policy remains highly controversial. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Netanyahu and confirmed that Trump and Israel are in 'full cooperation' on Gaza and Iran, solidifying Washington’s commitment to Israeli policies. The Vatican has now formally joined international opposition to the displacement plan, reinforcing diplomatic pressure. Saudi Arabia and other Arab states continue to develop an alternative post-war plan, directly challenging Trump’s vision.

Hezbollah’s Deadline: The Risk of War in Lebanon

Hezbollah’s demand that Israel withdraw from southern Lebanon by February 18 is a critical escalation. With Israel’s airstrikes intensifying and Hezbollah mobilizing forces, the probability of a direct confrontation has surged. The attack on a Hezbollah weapons site in eastern Lebanon signals that Israel is willing to strike preemptively. If no diplomatic resolution is reached, a Hezbollah-Israel war could erupt, drawing in Iran and destabilizing Lebanon further.

U.S.-Israel Military Alignment and Iran’s Nuclear Timeline

The U.S. has lifted restrictions on arms sales to Israel, allowing the transfer of MK-84 heavy bombs, a move that suggests Washington is preparing for potential military escalation in Gaza or Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran’s uranium enrichment program has accelerated toward weapons-grade levels, with the U.N. nuclear watchdog issuing an urgent warning. Israeli and U.S. officials reaffirmed their determination to 'roll back' Iran’s influence, suggesting that a preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities is becoming increasingly probable.

Regional Economic and Diplomatic Shifts

Iraq has banned five more banks from U.S. dollar transactions, aligning with Washington’s efforts to dismantle Iran-linked financial networks in MENA. Turkey is preparing for new military action in Syria, while Damascus has signaled willingness to coordinate with Ankara on security matters. This could mark the beginning of a Turkish-Syrian military realignment. Meanwhile, Russia’s delayed cash transfers to Syria indicate that Moscow’s influence over Damascus may be weakening. In the diplomatic sphere, Saudi Arabia and Russia are preparing for direct Ukraine war talks, while Kyiv’s exclusion has triggered frustration in Europe.

Strategic Outlook

The Middle East is reaching a dangerous tipping point. Hezbollah’s deadline for Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon is the most immediate flashpoint, with high risks of war if no resolution is found. Meanwhile, Israel’s airstrikes in Lebanon and Gaza, combined with the U.S. lifting restrictions on arms sales, signal that military escalation is imminent. Iran’s nuclear advancements, coupled with U.S.-Israeli efforts to curb Tehran’s influence, indicate that a direct confrontation with Iran is a growing possibility. Economic and diplomatic realignments—such as Saudi Arabia’s alternative Gaza plan, Iraq’s financial crackdown on Iran, and Turkey’s potential cooperation with Syria—are reshaping regional power dynamics. With Gaza’s humanitarian crisis worsening and diplomatic efforts failing to prevent escalation, the MENA region is now at its highest risk level in years.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(17-02-2025)

The MENA region is rapidly approaching a crisis point, with multiple conflicts escalating simultaneously. Trump’s Gaza displacement plan has faced deepening global rejection, forcing Netanyahu to reframe the policy as 'voluntary Palestinian relocation' to reduce accusations of ethnic cleansing. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has issued a February 18 deadline for Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon, marking a major escalation that could trigger direct conflict. Israel has responded with airstrikes in Lebanon and Gaza, further destabilizing the region. In parallel, the U.S. has lifted restrictions on arms sales to Israel, allowing the transfer of MK-84 heavy bombs, signaling stronger military alignment between Washington and Tel Aviv ahead of potential hostilities. Iran’s uranium enrichment is accelerating toward weapons-grade levels, prompting the U.N. to issue urgent warnings, while U.S. and Israeli officials reaffirm their determination to 'roll back' Iran’s influence, increasing the risk of direct military confrontation. Iraq’s financial crackdown on Iran-linked banks aligns with Washington’s broader strategy of limiting Tehran’s regional reach. Turkey is preparing for new military operations in Syria, while Damascus signals willingness to coordinate security efforts with Ankara. Meanwhile, Russia’s delayed financial support to Syria raises doubts about Moscow’s long-term ability to sustain influence post-Assad. The Vatican has joined growing international opposition to Trump’s Gaza plan, adding to diplomatic pressure. Humanitarian conditions in Gaza continue to deteriorate, with severe water shortages and restricted aid deliveries pushing the region toward mass displacement and potential unrest. With rising tensions across multiple fronts, the region is at a critical juncture, and the potential for military escalation remains dangerously high.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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