Global Risk Indexes (17-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 (+1 ▲)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 98 (+1 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Fragmentation, Security Crises, and Strategic Realignments Reshape the Americas

The Americas are experiencing a fundamental restructuring of their geopolitical and economic order. Key developments on the global stage—including U.S. shifts in foreign policy, deepening economic fragmentation, and worsening security challenges—are accelerating the region’s transition away from a U.S.-centric framework.

North American trade realignment continues, weakening Washington’s economic grip. The ongoing U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war is pushing Mexico and Canada further toward economic diversification strategies. Mexico has finalized additional agreements with China and the European Union, particularly in energy and technology, while Canada is expanding trade with Indo-Pacific partners. These moves are not merely short-term responses but signal a structural shift in North American economic interdependence. If current trends persist, the USMCA agreement could become strategically irrelevant, diminishing Washington’s economic leverage in the region.

Washington’s pivot from Europe raises alarm in Latin America. The Trump administration’s recent moves to sideline European nations in Ukraine peace talks have reinforced perceptions in Latin America that Washington is prioritizing domestic security and Indo-Pacific competition over traditional alliances. This shift has triggered concerns among Latin American leaders about long-term U.S. commitment to regional stability. The recalibration of U.S. foreign policy suggests a potential deprioritization of Latin America in Washington’s global strategic calculations, which could further embolden China’s economic and security footprint in the region.

Migration and border security tensions continue to escalate. The Trump administration’s intensified deportation policies are exacerbating humanitarian pressures along the U.S.-Mexico border. Overcrowded detention centers, deteriorating conditions in migrant transit hubs, and rising border confrontations are fueling diplomatic disputes between Washington, Mexico, and Central American nations. Criminal organizations are capitalizing on the situation by expanding their influence in regions where state control is weak, reinforcing the long-term security crisis in Mexico and Central America.

Latin America’s multipolar shift accelerates. Argentina and Brazil continue to strengthen economic and strategic ties with Europe and China, reflecting a broader effort to reduce dependency on U.S.-led financial and trade structures. This shift is evident in Argentina’s push for greater European investment in energy and Brazil’s deepening agricultural and technology partnerships with China. As Washington’s economic leverage weakens, the region’s economic landscape is becoming increasingly diversified, yet fragmented, setting the stage for long-term geopolitical competition between global powers.

Organized crime expands its influence amid weak governance. Transnational criminal networks are exploiting security gaps in Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala, further undermining regional stability. The inability of state institutions to contain cartel violence is fueling discussions within Washington about the potential expansion of U.S. security operations in Mexico. However, such measures risk straining U.S.-Mexico relations, especially given Latin America’s growing insistence on strategic autonomy.

Short-term risks include economic volatility, heightened migration-related diplomatic tensions, and worsening security conditions. In the long term, the weakening of U.S. influence, the rise of alternative global partnerships, and the entrenchment of criminal networks could redefine the strategic balance in the Americas for the next decade.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(17-02-2025)

The geopolitical landscape of the Americas remains in a state of heightened instability as economic fragmentation, security crises, and diplomatic realignments intensify. The North American trade decoupling process is accelerating as Mexico and Canada deepen economic ties with China and Europe, further eroding U.S. economic dominance. Meanwhile, Washington’s strategic pivot away from Europe in favor of domestic and Indo-Pacific priorities is raising concerns among Latin American leaders regarding the region’s security architecture. The expansion of organized crime, coupled with governance failures, continues to weaken state authority in Mexico and Central America. As global power dynamics shift, the Americas are moving toward a multipolar framework, where regional actors assert greater autonomy from the United States, increasing both economic and security uncertainty.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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