Global Risk Indexes (14-02-2025)

Global 97 (0 —)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 96 (+1 ▲)
Europe 97 ( —)
Africa 97 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 96 (-2 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

The Americas at a Crossroads: Trade Decoupling, Security Erosion, and Shifting Alliances Signal a New Geopolitical Era

The Americas are facing a period of unprecedented geopolitical realignment, where economic and security challenges are accelerating a fundamental shift in regional power structures. The intersection of trade decoupling, migration disputes, and criminal expansion is reshaping the economic, political, and security landscape of the continent.

The North American trade war continues to drive Mexico and Canada toward alternative economic partnerships, diminishing U.S. regional dominance. Mexico's fast-tracking of trade deals with China and the European Union, particularly in energy, manufacturing, and technology sectors, signals a long-term diversification strategy that could permanently reshape North American economic interdependence. Canada's parallel deepening of trade ties with Indo-Pacific nations further weakens the USMCA's relevance, effectively eroding Washington's ability to dictate regional trade policies.

Latin America is actively repositioning itself within the global economic order. Argentina's and Brazil's continued engagement with China and Europe, particularly in strategic sectors such as infrastructure, energy, and agriculture, is shifting the region's economic dependencies. As Latin America reduces its reliance on Washington-led financial institutions and trade agreements, a new economic framework is emerging'one that could eventually challenge traditional Western dominance over the region's financial and investment flows.

The migration crisis is now a major driver of diplomatic rifts, economic strain, and security volatility. The Trump administration's increased deportations and militarization of the U.S.-Mexico border are not just a humanitarian crisis but a geopolitical one. Mexico and Central America are experiencing an overload of returnees, creating economic pressures on already fragile economies. This situation is feeding into a broader cycle where criminal organizations exploit displaced populations for recruitment, human trafficking, and extortion, further undermining governance in the region.

Organized crime's influence over strategic economic corridors is deepening. Cartels in Mexico and criminal networks in Central America are now controlling vital trade and migration routes, positioning themselves as parallel power structures to weak governments. The inability of Latin American nations to assert full sovereignty over these regions is inviting external intervention debates, with the possibility of increased U.S. involvement in counter-narcotics operations'a move that could spark backlash from Latin American leaders seeking greater autonomy.

Latin America's foreign policy trajectory is diverging, accelerating the decline of U.S. influence. While Washington remains a key security and economic player, its leverage over the region is shrinking. The rise of China as a dominant economic force and Europe's strategic engagement with South America indicate that Latin America is no longer a passive actor in global affairs'it is actively seeking diversified partnerships to hedge against U.S. policy unpredictability.

Short-term risks include trade instability, increased cartel-driven violence, and diplomatic conflicts over migration. In the long term, the Americas are moving toward a new geopolitical framework where U.S. influence is reduced, regional alliances are restructured, and security challenges become more complex due to the entrenchment of non-state actors.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(14-02-2025)

The Americas are undergoing a profound shift in their geopolitical and economic structures, characterized by deepening economic fragmentation, escalating security challenges, and shifting diplomatic alignments. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war is entrenching long-term economic diversification, while Washington's aggressive immigration policies are fueling instability across Mexico and Central America. Meanwhile, organized crime is expanding its control over critical economic corridors, further undermining state authority. The weakening influence of the United States in Latin America is accelerating as countries pivot toward alternative trade and security partners, signaling a transition toward a multipolar order in the hemisphere.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

Previous Briefings

See all previous briefings