Global Risk Indexes (09-02-2025)

Global 98 (+1 ▲)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 98 (+1 ▲)
Europe 97 ( —)
Africa 97 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 (+1 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Decoupling, Migration Crises, and Strategic Shifts Reshape the Americas' Geopolitical Landscape

The geopolitical order of the Americas is shifting rapidly as economic, security, and migration crises converge. The continued escalation of trade disputes, regional economic realignments, and U.S. border policies are driving a period of instability and strategic recalibration.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war accelerates regional economic fragmentation. The Trump administration's tariff strategy is pushing Mexico and Canada toward alternative trade alliances. Mexico is deepening negotiations with China and the European Union, while Canada is increasing trade engagements with Asia-Pacific economies. The long-term consequences include a restructuring of North American supply chains and a weakening of U.S. economic influence in the region.

Latin America's economic diversification intensifies. Brazil is leveraging its agricultural and industrial partnerships with China, while Argentina is shifting its trade and defense cooperation toward Europe. These trends indicate a broadening regional strategy to hedge against economic volatility in the United States and establish alternative international alliances.

Migration tensions worsen as U.S. border policies fuel diplomatic conflicts. The expansion of border militarization and mass deportations under the Trump administration is increasing diplomatic tensions between Washington and Latin American governments. Mexico and Central American nations are struggling to accommodate deportees, raising security concerns as criminal networks exploit the displacement of vulnerable populations.

Organized crime expands amid governance failures and economic instability. The economic downturn in Mexico and political instability in Central America have created an environment where transnational criminal organizations are expanding operations. Drug cartels and human trafficking syndicates are gaining ground in regions where state authority has weakened. Meanwhile, security threats in Colombia and El Salvador continue to undermine national stability.

Washington's influence in Latin America faces growing resistance. While some countries, such as Panama and El Salvador, remain closely aligned with U.S. strategic objectives, others'particularly Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil'are pursuing independent foreign policies. This divergence highlights a broader weakening of Washington's historical dominance in the region.

Short-term risks include economic instability, social unrest linked to migration policies, and security threats from organized crime. In the long term, the fragmentation of economic alliances, the erosion of U.S. influence, and the emergence of alternative power blocs could reshape the strategic balance of the Americas for the next decade.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(09-02-2025)

The Americas are experiencing an era of intensified geopolitical fragmentation as economic decoupling, migration tensions, and rising security threats reshape regional stability. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war continues to disrupt supply chains and deepen economic uncertainty, while the Trump administration's escalation of border militarization and deportation policies is fueling humanitarian crises and diplomatic rifts. At the same time, Latin American nations are recalibrating their geopolitical alignments, with Argentina and Brazil pivoting towards alternative economic and security partnerships. The growing influence of organized crime and governance failures in Mexico and Central America further exacerbates instability, increasing the risk of long-term structural shifts in trade, security, and diplomatic relations.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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