Global Risk Indexes (03-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 96 ( —)
APAC 98 (+1 ▲)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 97 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 98 (-1 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

North American Trade War Escalates as U.S. Tariff Offensive Sparks Retaliation and Economic Uncertainty

The Americas are entering a period of heightened instability as the U.S. launches a full-scale trade confrontation with Canada and Mexico, triggering countermeasures and reshaping global economic alignments. The latest developments signal the rapid deterioration of economic integration in North America and increasing geopolitical risk across the hemisphere.

The U.S. imposes sweeping tariffs, triggering an economic and political standoff. President Donald Trump's decision to implement 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, alongside a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, marks the most aggressive trade policy shift in decades. These measures have already led to immediate retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Mexico, signaling a full-scale trade war. The implications for North American supply chains, particularly in the automotive and agricultural sectors, could be severe, with analysts predicting a contraction in economic growth across the region.

Canada and Mexico respond with countermeasures, shifting regional trade dynamics. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced retaliatory tariffs targeting key U.S. exports such as dairy, steel, and automobiles, while also initiating legal action at the WTO and NAFTA dispute panels. Mexico's response under President Claudia Sheinbaum includes tariffs on U.S. pork, corn, and industrial goods, alongside a diplomatic push to strengthen ties with the European Union and China to mitigate economic fallout.

Trade uncertainty fuels financial instability and investor skepticism. The markets have reacted sharply, with the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso experiencing significant depreciation against the U.S. dollar. Financial analysts warn that these disruptions could push Canada and Mexico toward recession, while the U.S. faces rising inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and economic stagnation. The specter of a stagflationary scenario in the U.S. could have global repercussions, particularly for Latin American economies reliant on U.S. trade.

Migration tensions intensify as the U.S. hardens deportation policies. In parallel to economic confrontations, the Trump administration continues to escalate migration enforcement, with an increase in deportation flights to Central America and the militarization of key border zones. Mexico and Guatemala are struggling to accommodate the influx of deportees, exacerbating social and political strains.

Security and military realignments accelerate as Argentina deepens defense cooperation with Europe. Buenos Aires' strategic shift away from U.S. defense suppliers continues, with new agreements being explored with France and Germany. This represents a weakening of Washington's long-standing influence over Latin American security architecture and signals increasing European engagement in the region.

Short-term risks include trade disruptions, migration crises, and financial market instability. Long-term stability will depend on diplomatic de-escalation, trade diversification strategies, and regional economic resilience measures to mitigate the fallout from U.S. protectionist policies.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(03-02-2025)

The Americas are facing an unprecedented geopolitical crisis as the U.S. escalates economic warfare against Canada, Mexico, and China. The resulting retaliatory measures, combined with deepening migration crises, security realignments, and governance failures, are destabilizing regional trade, diplomatic relations, and economic stability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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