Global Risk Indexes (29-01-2025)

Global 97 (+1 ▲)
MENA 95 ( —)
APAC 96 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 98 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 96 (+1 ▲)
Markets 98 (+2 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Wars, Migration Tensions, and Resource Conflicts Escalate Regional Instability in the Americas

The Americas are at a pivotal moment as trade wars, aggressive migration policies, and economic pressures exacerbate geopolitical tensions. The latest developments indicate a growing risk of prolonged regional instability, demanding strategic realignment and multilateral engagement.

U.S. trade disputes continue to destabilize economic integration in North America. The Trump administration's push for a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, paired with retaliatory measures from both countries, threatens the viability of USMCA. Mexico's and Canada's efforts to seek alternative trade partnerships reflect a strategic recalibration to reduce economic dependency on the U.S. However, the structural realities of North American supply chains make full decoupling a long-term challenge.

Migration policies and deportation tensions are further straining U.S.-Latin America relations. The militarization of deportation policies, including the use of U.S. military aircraft for repatriation flights, has sparked outrage across Latin America. Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico are increasingly vocal against what they view as punitive and coercive measures. Meanwhile, the influx of deported migrants is stretching the capacities of border regions, exacerbating humanitarian crises and fueling anti-U.S. sentiment in affected countries.

Resource governance challenges highlight systemic economic vulnerabilities. Brazil's economic instability, exacerbated by currency volatility and high debt servicing costs, threatens to derail its economic recovery. Meanwhile, Argentina's LNG export expansion faces geopolitical risks due to global energy market fluctuations and regulatory uncertainties. Colombia's ongoing armed conflicts in resource-rich regions continue to deter foreign investment, exposing the limitations of state governance in securing economic assets.

Regional climate challenges add another layer of complexity to governance and economic stability. A UN-backed climate assessment warns of extreme weather patterns affecting agricultural output in Latin America, particularly in Brazil and Argentina. These disruptions threaten food security and export revenues, compounding existing economic pressures and increasing the urgency for sustainable adaptation strategies.

Short-term risks include economic disruptions from trade tensions, worsening migration crises, and governance failures in resource management. Long-term stability requires proactive regional cooperation, sustainable trade strategies, and effective governance reforms to address these interconnected challenges.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(29-01-2025)

The Americas are experiencing escalating geopolitical instability due to trade conflicts, worsening migration crises, and deepening economic vulnerabilities. The intersection of U.S. policy shifts, resource management disputes, and internal governance failures across key nations underscores the region's fragile geopolitical landscape.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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