Global Risk Indexes (28-01-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 95 (+1 ▲)
APAC 96 ( —)
Europe 98 (+1 ▲)
Africa 97 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 95 (-1 ▼)
Markets 96 (-1 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Disputes, Migration Tensions, and Resource Challenges Push the Americas Toward Geopolitical Instability

The Americas are navigating an era of heightened geopolitical volatility, marked by strained U.S. relations with regional partners, contentious migration policies, and resource-related tensions. These dynamics highlight systemic vulnerabilities and necessitate urgent multilateral engagement to avert prolonged instability.

U.S. trade policies with Canada, Mexico, and Colombia are disrupting economic stability and regional cooperation. President Trump's threats of 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports and punitive measures against Colombia reflect a protectionist stance that risks unraveling established trade frameworks like USMCA. Canada's proactive engagement with European allies suggests a pivot toward diversifying trade relations, while Mexico's acceptance of deported migrants highlights the challenges of navigating U.S. demands without compromising sovereignty.

The militarization of deportation policies and the use of U.S. military aircraft for migrant repatriation exacerbate regional tensions. Reports of degrading treatment of deportees, coupled with Trump's rhetoric on enforcing compliance, have drawn strong rebukes from Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. These policies strain diplomatic ties, erode trust, and risk alienating critical partners in managing regional migration crises.

Resource politics and fiscal challenges in Brazil and Colombia underline governance deficits. Brazil's fiscal instability and currency volatility, driven by soaring real yields and capital outflows, complicate its economic recovery prospects. Meanwhile, Colombia's dependency on resource exports, such as oil and coffee, exposes its economy to external shocks, including the potential fallout of U.S. tariffs.

Climate variability and extreme weather threaten food security and economic resilience across Latin America. A United Nations report highlights the region's vulnerability to climate-induced disruptions in agricultural productivity, underscoring the need for robust climate adaptation strategies. These challenges, coupled with rising malnutrition rates, exacerbate existing socio-economic inequalities and governance strains.

Short-term risks include economic disruption from U.S. tariffs, governance challenges in resource management, and heightened migration tensions. Long-term stability requires coordinated regional strategies that prioritize economic diversification, sustainable resource management, and multilateral collaboration to address these multi-dimensional challenges.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(28-01-2025)

The Americas face heightened geopolitical and economic risks due to escalating U.S.-driven trade disputes, contentious migration policies, and intensifying resource governance challenges. These factors, compounded by climate variability and governance weaknesses in key nations, signal growing instability across the region in the near term.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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