Global Risk Indexes (25-01-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 94 ( —)
APAC 96 (+1 ▲)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 94 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 96 (+1 ▲)
Markets 98 (+1 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

U.S.-China Tensions, Regional Trade Conflicts, and Colombian Violence Reshape the Americas' Geopolitical Landscape

Geopolitical dynamics in the Americas reflect rising tensions with global powers, economic volatility, and deepening resource and migration challenges. These developments signal increasing instability across the hemisphere with potential global repercussions.

U.S.-China relations cast a shadow over global and regional trade dynamics. The call between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi highlights the cautious engagement between the two powers under President Trump. While both leaders emphasized cooperation, Rubio's reiteration of U.S. commitments to allies and concerns over Taiwan and the South China Sea underscore the continued friction. Trump's suggestion of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports adds a new layer of uncertainty to global supply chains, directly affecting trade-dependent economies in the Americas.

Colombia's conflict zones deepen humanitarian and security crises. The escalation of violence between the ELN and FARC factions in Catatumbo has resulted in mass desertions and civilian displacement. President Gustavo Petro's suspension of peace talks with the ELN represents a significant setback in addressing decades of armed conflict. The clashes in resource-rich regions also highlight the broader governance challenges in maintaining state authority and stability.

Trade tensions and political uncertainty dominate North America's economic discourse. Ontario Premier Doug Ford's decision to call an early election reflects Canada's strategy to strengthen its negotiating position amid Trump's 25% tariff threats. The growing rhetoric around annexation and sovereignty also underscores deepening U.S.-Canada friction. Meanwhile, Mexico's steady inflation decline offers some economic optimism, though its exposure to U.S. trade policies keeps vulnerabilities high.

Migratory pressures continue to strain regional infrastructure and diplomatic relations. President Trump's suspension of refugee resettlement programs, alongside stricter asylum policies, exacerbates humanitarian challenges at the U.S.-Mexico border. Migrants stranded in overcrowded border towns face heightened risks of exploitation and violence, further compounding social tensions in Central America and Mexico.

Resource politics and environmental issues remain central to the region's strategic trajectory. Brazil's fiscal challenges, linked to high-interest borrowing, coincide with resource management pressures as conflicts in Colombia's gold mining regions escalate. Meanwhile, Argentina's LNG export ambitions reflect a strategic push to bolster economic recovery but face risks from volatile global energy markets.

Short-term risks are defined by trade disputes, migration crises, and resource conflicts. Long-term stability requires cohesive regional strategies, sustainable resource governance, and strengthened institutional frameworks to address these multi-dimensional challenges effectively.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(25-01-2025)

The Americas are facing a challenging convergence of geopolitical disputes, resource politics, and socio-economic instability. Heightened tensions surrounding trade, migration, and regional conflicts demand robust diplomatic efforts and multilateral engagement to stabilize the region and maintain global confidence.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

Previous Briefings

See all previous briefings