Global Risk Indexes (20-01-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 95 (-1 ▼)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 (+1 ▲)
Africa 93 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 95 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Resource Wars, Political Turmoil, and Migration Crises Define the Americas' Geopolitical Complexities

The Americas' strategic trajectory is being reshaped by escalating violence, resource competition, and systemic governance failures. Developments this week underscore the region's vulnerabilities amidst shifting global dynamics and the persistent challenges of economic and political stabilization.

Colombia's escalating violence highlights the fragility of peace and governance. The suspension of peace talks with the National Liberation Army (ELN) following accusations of war crimes by President Gustavo Petro underscores the volatility of Colombia's internal conflicts. The violence in the Catatumbo region, a critical drug trafficking corridor, has displaced over 8,000 people and killed at least 80 civilians. This conflict reveals the enduring power of armed groups and the systemic inability to enforce state authority, particularly in resource-rich and strategically vital areas.

Resource conflicts further destabilize Colombia as critical infrastructure comes under attack. The bombing of the Zijin Mining-operated Buritica gold mine by illegal armed groups exemplifies the ongoing struggle for control over valuable resources. Such incidents not only disrupt economic activity but also perpetuate cycles of violence and illegality, undermining Colombia's ability to attract foreign investment and stabilize its mining sector.

Migration crises continue to strain regional stability and highlight systemic governance gaps. The raid on a migrant camp in Chihuahua, Mexico, illustrates the escalating challenges faced by migrant families amidst U.S. policy shifts under President-elect Donald Trump. The threat of mass deportations and increased border enforcement exacerbates humanitarian pressures, with Venezuela and Haiti remaining central to regional migration dynamics. These challenges underscore the need for coordinated international approaches to migration management and humanitarian assistance.

Geopolitical realignments and resource politics define the region's strategic importance. Kenya's deployment of police to Haiti marks a significant international intervention in the Caribbean's gang violence crisis, signaling global acknowledgment of the region's security challenges. Simultaneously, U.S. preparations for Trump's inauguration suggest a recalibration of trade, energy, and immigration policies, with far-reaching implications for the Americas. These policies may further disrupt existing alliances and economic agreements, amplifying regional uncertainties.

Short-term risks include escalating violence in Colombia, migration pressures in Mexico, and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy shifts. Long-term solutions necessitate cohesive governance reforms, sustainable resource management, and proactive multilateral engagement to address these systemic challenges effectively.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(20-01-2025)

The Americas face heightened risks stemming from entrenched governance failures, escalating violence, and intensified resource competition. These challenges are compounded by geopolitical shifts and regional instabilities, requiring urgent multilateral engagement and systemic reforms to stabilize the region.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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