Global Risk Indexes (13-01-2025)

Global 95 (-1 ▼)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 97 (-1 ▼)
Europe 96 (-2 ▼)
Africa 88 ( —)
AMERs 97 (+1 ▲)
Markets 93 (-3 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Strategic Resource Competition and Governance Failures Underscore the Americas' Geopolitical Volatility

The Americas continue to grapple with systemic governance weaknesses and global geopolitical rivalries, shaping the region's complex strategic trajectory. Recent developments highlight a delicate balance between leveraging natural resources for economic growth and addressing structural governance deficiencies.

Brazil's focus on renewable energy signals a strategic shift towards sustainability and energy security. President Luiz In'cio Lula da Silva's signing of legislation to promote offshore wind farms positions Brazil as a potential leader in renewable energy in the region. The law's emphasis on community consultations and environmental protections reflects an effort to align development with sustainability goals. However, the high cost and technical challenges of offshore wind projects, coupled with Brazil's fiscal constraints, raise questions about the feasibility and scale of these initiatives in the near term.

Venezuela's political isolation deepens amidst new sanctions and Maduro's contested legitimacy. The U.S., EU, and Canada imposed fresh sanctions targeting high-ranking officials, coinciding with President Nicolas Maduro's inauguration for a third term. These measures amplify Venezuela's economic fragility and exacerbate regional instability. The Maduro regime's resilience, bolstered by alliances with Russia, China, and Iran, underscores a broader geopolitical alignment challenging Western influence in the Americas. Opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez's calls for military defection and external support highlight the polarized political landscape, while migration pressures intensify as millions of Venezuelans flee deteriorating conditions.

Regional security and resource competition remain focal points of geopolitical contention. The U.S. lobbying success in Greenland's rare earths sector illustrates the Americas' strategic importance in global supply chains. This development underscores the region's role in countering Chinese dominance in critical minerals, a priority for the U.S. amid rising tensions with Beijing. Simultaneously, Venezuela's border closures with Colombia and political unrest in neighboring countries amplify security challenges, threatening economic integration and regional stability.

Migration and socio-political unrest reflect the Americas' governance crises and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The Biden administration's extension of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Venezuelans and other immigrant populations underscores the human cost of political and economic instability. The move delays potential rollbacks under President-elect Trump's administration but does little to address the root causes driving migration flows from the region.

Short-term risks center on escalating political tensions in Venezuela, economic instability in Brazil, and the geopolitical ramifications of U.S.-China competition over strategic resources. Long-term stability requires addressing systemic governance weaknesses, fostering sustainable development, and building cohesive regional frameworks to navigate an increasingly fragmented global order.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(13-01-2025)

The Americas are navigating escalating geopolitical challenges defined by economic recalibrations, strategic resource competition, and entrenched governance crises. These dynamics are compounded by external pressures from global power rivalries and internal socio-political instability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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