Global Risk Indexes (08-01-2025)

Global 95 (+1 ▲)
MENA 99 (+1 ▲)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 97 (+1 ▲)
Africa 87 ( —)
AMERs 96 (+2 ▲)
Markets 92 (-1 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Resource Dependencies, Diplomatic Tensions, and Ideological Fractures Threaten Stability Across the Americas

The Americas' economic and political systems remain under strain as governance fragilities intersect with global power rivalries and internal divisions. Argentina's improving risk index and cooling inflation provide some short-term relief, but the country remains exposed to structural weaknesses, particularly with upcoming bond payments and a trade model heavily reliant on commodity exports. President Javier Milei's libertarian reforms'while reducing fiscal pressures'risk deepening societal divides, as the peso's appreciation spurs outbound tourism and challenges trade balances. Argentina's struggle reflects the broader difficulty of balancing fiscal discipline with equitable economic growth in an ideologically polarized environment.

Brazil's economic recalibration underscores the challenges of maintaining fiscal discipline in an export-dependent economy. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad's optimistic GDP forecasts highlight Brazil's resilience, but the 27% depreciation of the real against the dollar signals deep vulnerabilities. The BYD labor controversies illustrate systemic governance failures that threaten Brazil's appeal as a destination for foreign investment, a key pillar of its growth strategy. Brazil's resource wealth, while a strategic advantage, remains undermined by governance deficiencies and environmental conflicts.

Venezuela's escalating tensions with domestic and international actors point to an increasingly fragmented political landscape. The kidnapping of Edmundo Gonzalez's son-in-law and the arrest of U.S. citizens reflect a Maduro regime intent on consolidating power while resisting external pressures. These actions, coupled with impending U.S. sanctions, exacerbate Venezuela's isolation and deepen its political polarization. The regime's partial economic recovery through hydrocarbons remains unsustainable without structural reforms and renewed international legitimacy.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's rhetoric on acquiring Greenland and the Panama Canal highlights a resurgence of expansionist and unilateral policies. These remarks have drawn sharp criticism from regional leaders, reflecting heightened anxieties over U.S. hegemony in Latin America. Trump's proposed tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods further destabilize North American trade dynamics, undermining regional integration efforts at a critical juncture for economic recovery and global competition.

Security and governance challenges in the Caribbean reveal systemic vulnerabilities that transcend national borders. Explosions at a Cuban arms depot emphasize the fragility of governance in managing critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, Honduras faces mounting transnational security threats, with the murder of a consulate guard in Atlanta underscoring the risks posed by organized crime. These incidents highlight the urgent need for strengthened regional security frameworks and cross-border collaboration to address systemic risks.

Short-term risks include escalating economic tensions between the U.S. and its neighbors, Venezuela's political instability, and security threats in the Caribbean and Central America. Over the long term, the Americas must adopt integrated strategies to address resource vulnerabilities, promote governance reforms, and navigate ideological divides in an increasingly multipolar global order.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(08-01-2025)

The Americas face intensifying systemic risks stemming from governance fragility, geopolitical rivalries, and economic vulnerabilities. The intersection of strategic resource dependencies, escalating security crises, and ideological polarization is testing regional cohesion and long-term stability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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