Global Risk Indexes (03-01-2025)

Global 94 (+1 ▲)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 96 (+1 ▲)
Europe 95 (+1 ▲)
Africa 84 (-2 ▼)
AMERs 92 (+1 ▲)
Markets 96 (+1 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Diplomatic Tensions, Migration Crises, and Resource Struggles Define the Americas' Strategic Crossroads

The Americas region confronts intensifying geopolitical and governance challenges as migration crises, resource competition, and diplomatic tensions redefine its strategic landscape. Migration remains a focal point, with over 300,000 migrants crossing the Darien Gap in 2024'a significant decrease from the previous year, reflecting Panama's hardline policies under President Jose Raul Mulino. While these measures reduced crossings, they failed to address the root causes driving migration, such as Venezuela's prolonged economic collapse. Panama's U.S.-funded deportations highlight the transactional nature of regional migration management, but critics warn of heightened dangers for migrants navigating harsher conditions.

Argentina-Venezuela relations deteriorate further amid ideological polarization and human rights disputes. Argentina's complaint to the International Criminal Court against Venezuela for the detention of Nahuel Gallo reflects growing tensions since Javier Milei's inauguration. Venezuela's response, labeling the complaint as a 'pitiful spectacle,' underscores the ideological divide between libertarian Argentina and socialist Venezuela. The regional fallout risks undermining multilateral efforts to address shared challenges, particularly as Venezuela's opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez begins a Latin American tour aimed at garnering support against the Maduro regime.

Resource governance challenges take center stage with Jervois Global's pre-packaged bankruptcy. The collapse of the Western cobalt miner underscores the growing dominance of Chinese-linked firms in critical mineral markets, raising alarms about the Americas' role in global supply chains for strategic resources. Jervois' bankruptcy also highlights systemic vulnerabilities in Western resource strategies, emphasizing the need for coordinated industrial policies to counterbalance Chinese influence and stabilize critical mineral supplies for emerging technologies.

Cuba faces deepening socioeconomic challenges as Santeria priests' annual prophecies highlight the enduring impact of the island's economic crisis. The forecasts, calling for government reforms and caution in investments, reflect public discontent with persistent shortages and governance inefficiencies. The U.S. sanctions remain a convenient scapegoat for the Cuban government, but the crisis also underscores the structural deficiencies of the island's state-managed economy.

Short-term risks include heightened diplomatic tensions between Venezuela and Argentina, resource governance challenges in critical mineral markets, and migration-related humanitarian crises. Long-term stability across the Americas will depend on addressing systemic governance vulnerabilities, fostering sustainable resource policies, and enhancing multilateral frameworks to manage regional security and economic integration in an era of heightened great power competition.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(03-01-2025)

The Americas face escalating risks from migration pressures, resource governance crises, and diplomatic tensions. These challenges underscore systemic governance vulnerabilities and reveal the complexities of balancing national strategies with external geopolitical pressures in an increasingly multipolar world.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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