Global Risk Indexes (28-12-2024)

Global 92 (+1 ▲)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 94 ( —)
Europe 94 ( —)
Africa 84 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 87 (+2 ▲)
Markets 92 (-2 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Labor Conflicts, Diplomatic Disputes, and Economic Policy Recalibrations Define the Americas' Complex Dynamics

The Americas region continues to navigate a fraught geopolitical and economic landscape shaped by intensifying labor conflicts, external diplomatic pressures, and evolving domestic policies. In Brazil, the controversy surrounding Chinese labor conditions at a BYD factory has grown into a diplomatic flashpoint. Accusations of human trafficking and slavery-like conditions underscore systemic regulatory failures and complicate Brazil-China relations, which are vital for Brazil's economic ambitions. The government's suspension of BYD-related temporary work visas signals a broader attempt to reassert control over foreign labor practices but risks alienating a critical investor.

Venezuela-Argentina relations have reached a new nadir amidst escalating accusations of terrorism. Venezuela's attorney general has expanded the investigation into detained Argentine Gendarmeria officer Nahuel Gallo, accusing him of connections to international far-right terrorism. The case has deepened diplomatic rifts between Venezuela's socialist government and Argentina's libertarian administration under President Javier Milei, reflecting broader ideological polarization in the region. These tensions could undermine regional multilateralism and fragment economic cooperation frameworks.

Guatemala continues to recalibrate its foreign policy in preparation for President-elect Trump's immigration agenda. While publicly denying finalized agreements, Guatemala's openness to receiving deportees from other nations signals a pragmatic approach to align with U.S. priorities. However, this alignment risks social strain and economic disruption as deported migrants add pressure to Guatemala's limited resources and remittance-dependent economy.

Peru seeks to stabilize its economy amidst lingering public discontent and environmental crises. President Dina Boluarte's announcement of a 10% minimum wage increase aims to address poverty and stimulate demand. However, the business community's warnings of increased informal employment reflect broader structural challenges in integrating labor market reforms with sustainable economic recovery. Peru's ongoing crude oil spill crisis further complicates governance efforts, highlighting weaknesses in resource management and regulatory accountability.

Short-term risks across the Americas include heightened diplomatic volatility between Venezuela and Argentina, labor tensions in Brazil, and the implications of U.S. immigration policies for Guatemala. Long-term stability will require navigating these immediate pressures while fostering institutional reforms and multilateral frameworks to address systemic vulnerabilities and regional fragmentation.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(28-12-2024)

Geopolitical, economic, and governance risks in the Americas remain elevated. Key developments include Brazil's labor and inflation dynamics, escalating diplomatic tensions involving Venezuela and Argentina, and strategic recalibrations in Guatemala and Peru. These highlight the region's struggles with external pressures, internal stability, and the balancing of long-term policy goals with immediate challenges.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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