Global Risk Indexes (21-12-2024)

Global 89 (+1 ▲)
MENA 99 (+1 ▲)
APAC 91 (+1 ▲)
Europe 90 (+1 ▲)
Africa 84 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 77 (-1 ▼)
Markets 91 (+1 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Disputes, Fiscal Challenges, and Policy Shifts Highlight Risk in the Americas

Trade disputes dominate regional economic discussions, with Mexico at the center of controversy. A USMCA dispute panel ruled against Mexico's restrictions on U.S. genetically modified corn exports, reinforcing the U.S.'s stance on biotechnology policies. The decision, applauded by U.S. agricultural groups, pressures Mexico to align its policies with the trade agreement, potentially escalating tensions as Mexico navigates U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's threats of 25% blanket tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico.

Canada's political instability continues to deepen as New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh confirmed plans to initiate a motion of no-confidence against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority government. Trudeau's position is further weakened by inter-party discord and the resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. The looming leadership crisis coincides with U.S. tariff threats, adding strain to Canada's economic strategy and trade resilience.

Brazil's fiscal framework faces renewed scrutiny. Although Congress passed a fiscal package aimed at containing public spending, legislative amendments have diluted its impact. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has downplayed the revisions, but skepticism about Brazil's fiscal discipline and its ability to control debt persists. Market concerns remain high, with investor confidence shaken by Lula's criticisms of monetary policy.

El Salvador's proposed repeal of its 2017 metals mining ban reflects shifting policy priorities. President Nayib Bukele's administration argues that renewed mining activity could stimulate economic growth, but critics raise environmental and social concerns. Bukele's move is consistent with his broader rejection of global norms in favor of local economic experimentation, such as his embrace of Bitcoin as legal tender.

Colombia's central bank signaled caution in its monetary easing strategy, cutting the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. The decision, smaller than anticipated, reflects fiscal uncertainties and the Petro administration's challenges in meeting spending targets. Inflation remains a concern as exchange rate pressures persist, complicating the path to fiscal stability.

Short-term risks include escalating trade tensions involving Mexico and Canada and fiscal pressures in Brazil and Colombia. Long-term stability across the Americas will depend on effective policy responses to economic and governance challenges, alongside robust international cooperation to navigate protectionist pressures.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(21-12-2024)

The Americas face elevated geopolitical and economic risks as trade tensions intensify, political instability mounts in Canada, and fiscal challenges persist in Brazil and Argentina. Emerging policy shifts in El Salvador and Colombia further reflect the region's complex economic and governance dynamics.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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