Global Risk Indexes (16-12-2024)

Global 87 (+1 ▲)
MENA 96 ( —)
APAC 89 (+2 ▲)
Europe 86 (-1 ▼)
Africa 81 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 76 (-2 ▼)
Markets 91 (+2 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Political Scandals, Cybersecurity Risks, and Democratic Resilience Shape the Americas

The Americas region is confronting a spectrum of political and security challenges this week. In Brazil, the arrest of former Defense Minister Walter Braga Netto, accused of organizing and financing a coup to overturn President Luiz In'cio Lula da Silva's 2022 election victory, has intensified scrutiny of far-right networks and military involvement in politics. Braga Netto's alleged role in hosting meetings to plan Lula's assassination highlights a deeply fractured political environment. President Lula's strong condemnation of these acts underscores the urgency of stabilizing Brazil's democratic institutions amidst lingering tensions from the Bolsonaro era.

Lula's health scare also adds a layer of political uncertainty. Although doctors have cleared him for work following emergency surgeries, speculation about his capacity to lead and potential succession scenarios within the Workers Party have intensified. This could disrupt Brazil's political landscape ahead of the 2026 elections, particularly if Lula's health limits his ability to implement critical reforms.

In the United States, cybersecurity concerns take center stage. The incoming Trump administration's response to the Chinese cyber espionage campaign Salt Typhoon will set the tone for its broader cybersecurity strategy. Trump's pick for National Security Adviser, Mike Waltz, has called for a shift to offensive cyber operations, signaling a more aggressive stance against state-sponsored cyberattacks. This approach could strain U.S.-China relations further, with potential repercussions for global trade and technology sectors.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party grapples with post-election fallout. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris' joint appearance highlights efforts to project unity after significant electoral losses. The party's internal divisions and uncertainty over Harris' political future add to the broader narrative of leadership challenges within the United States.

Short-term risks in the Americas include heightened political polarization in Brazil and evolving cybersecurity threats in the United States. Long-term stability will require institutional reforms, international cooperation on cybersecurity, and efforts to rebuild trust in democratic governance across the region.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(16-12-2024)

Geopolitical risks in the Americas are elevated by ongoing political turmoil in Brazil, cybersecurity concerns in the United States, and lingering uncertainty over leadership transitions in the Democratic Party. These events reflect broader governance and security challenges across the region.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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