Global Risk Indexes (09-12-2024)

Global 84 (0 —)
MENA 95 (+4 ▲)
APAC 86 (+1 ▲)
Europe 84 ( —)
Africa 78 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 75 ( —)
Markets 86 (-1 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Relations, Economic Austerity, and Policy Shifts Define the Americas

The Americas are navigating a complex blend of challenges and reforms this week. Mexico has intensified its efforts to defend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) amidst U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's aggressive tariff threats. The country's crackdown on contraband and record fentanyl seizures reflect attempts to strengthen its position in forthcoming negotiations. However, Trump's labeling of Mexico as a \backdoor\ for Chinese goods underscores persisting tensions. Mexico's plans to implement stricter investment screening measures, similar to U.S. frameworks, could reshape trade dynamics and investor confidence in the region.

Argentina's libertarian President Javier Milei continues to defy conventional political trajectories. Despite severe austerity measures and a shrinking economy, Milei retains high public approval. His administration has cut state spending, reduced inflation, and stabilized markets, albeit at the cost of rising poverty and job losses. Public patience, driven by past economic failures and Milei's bold reforms, remains pivotal. His ability to secure Congressional support from mainstream conservatives further bolsters his political standing, though the economic and social costs of his policies raise questions about long-term sustainability.

The broader regional outlook reflects interconnected challenges. Mexico's economic policy adjustments, including potential revisions to its constitutional ban on genetically modified corn, illustrate the balancing act between national priorities and trade obligations. Similarly, Argentina's pragmatic approach to governance amidst libertarian reforms highlights a blend of ideological commitments and political adaptability. Both countries' strategies will significantly influence regional stability and trade relations.

Short-term risks include heightened trade tensions and domestic discontent over austerity policies. Over the long term, the Americas' ability to foster resilient economic frameworks and navigate complex trade relationships will determine regional stability and growth.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(09-12-2024)

The Americas face persistent geopolitical and economic challenges, with significant developments in trade relations, governance strategies, and economic recovery efforts. Mexico's defense of the USMCA, Argentina's libertarian experiment, and the broader implications of U.S. policy shifts shape the regional outlook.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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