Global Risk Indexes (08-12-2024)

Global 84 (-1 ▼)
MENA 91 (-1 ▼)
APAC 85 (-2 ▼)
Europe 84 ( —)
Africa 79 (-2 ▼)
AMERs 75 ( —)
Markets 87 (-1 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

A Tumultuous Week: Trade Advancements, Migration Tensions, and Economic Challenges Reshape the Americas

This week in the Americas highlighted a complex interplay of challenges and opportunities. The finalization of the long-negotiated EU-Mercosur trade agreement marks a significant economic milestone for South America. The deal promises new market access for agricultural exports, such as soy and beef, while advancing cooperation on climate goals. However, resistance within the EU, particularly from France, underscores the hurdles ahead. Its success will depend on balancing trade liberalization with environmental and labor protections.

Economic instability remains a defining feature of the region. In Canada, unemployment reached 6.8%, a multi-year high, driving expectations of further interest rate cuts. In Brazil, inflationary pressures have prompted aggressive monetary tightening, with rates expected to rise to 12%. These trends highlight broader concerns about fiscal health and currency stability in North and South America alike.

Migration continues to dominate the regional agenda. Mexico is under intense pressure as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump advances plans for mass deportations and tighter border controls. Budget constraints on Mexican migration agencies exacerbate the country's capacity challenges. Meanwhile, Cuba has criticized Trump's proposals as unrealistic, signaling the broader diplomatic and humanitarian implications of these policies.

Security and governance challenges persist. Ecuador faces escalating violence linked to drug trafficking gangs, undermining its internal stability. In Mexico, record fentanyl seizures expose both progress in anti-drug efforts and the entrenched power of cartels. Brazil continues to grapple with illegal mining and its environmental consequences, while its government makes strides in recognizing Indigenous lands.

The Arctic region is emerging as a new focal point for geopolitical competition. Canada's strategy to bolster security in the Arctic, including new consulates and closer U.S. collaboration, reflects the increasing significance of this region amid global warming and Russian aggression.

Short-term risks are heavily concentrated in economic pressures and migration dynamics, while long-term stability hinges on effective governance and international cooperation. Despite the challenges, advancements like the EU-Mercosur deal provide a framework for positive transformation if implemented effectively.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(08-12-2024)

The geopolitical environment in the Americas this week reflects a mix of economic challenges, trade advancements, political shifts, and security risks. Persistent issues like trade tensions, migration dynamics, and fiscal instability are compounded by significant milestones, such as the EU-Mercosur trade deal, which could shape the region's future economic trajectory.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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