Global Risk Indexes (01-12-2024)

Global 79 (-2 ▼)
MENA 85 (-1 ▼)
APAC 79 (-1 ▼)
Europe 78 (-2 ▼)
Africa 75 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 75 (-1 ▼)
Markets 82 (-3 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

A Week of Escalating Risks: Trade Wars, Political Crises, and Systemic Vulnerabilities in the Americas

The geopolitical landscape of the Americas experienced heightened volatility this week, driven by intersecting political, economic, and institutional challenges. The centerpiece of this turmoil remains U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's aggressive trade policy rhetoric. His proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico threaten to disrupt critical supply chains and undermine the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The impact is already visible in financial markets, with currencies weakening and inflation risks rising. These tariffs not only pose direct threats to North American economic integration but also ripple into global trade dynamics, particularly with China.

In Brazil, former President Jair Bolsonaro's resurgence fuels political instability. Allegations of his involvement in coup plotting against President Luiz In'cio Lula da Silva have polarized the nation further, raising concerns about democratic backsliding. Bolsonaro's alignment with Trump adds an international dimension to Brazil's internal crisis, with potential implications for U.S.-Brazil relations.

Mexico is grappling with dual challenges. On one hand, it faces direct economic threats from Trump's tariff proposals. On the other, its Senate's decision to abolish key regulatory bodies has sparked concerns about democratic transparency and market confidence. These reforms risk deterring foreign investment and stoking domestic political opposition, undermining Mexico's economic and institutional stability.

Canada finds itself in a precarious position. As the second-largest U.S. trading partner, it faces significant economic pressures from proposed U.S. tariffs on critical exports such as crude oil and uranium. Prime Minister Trudeau's meeting with Trump underscores the urgency of averting a trade war, but Canada's slowing economic growth and fiscal challenges amplify the risks.

Cuba and Venezuela highlight systemic regional vulnerabilities. Cuba's ongoing energy crisis and economic decline, exacerbated by U.S. sanctions, threaten to spark migration waves and deepen social unrest. Meanwhile, Venezuela's legislative crackdown on dissent through the Simon Bolivar Liberator law signals heightened authoritarianism, further isolating the Maduro regime and complicating international diplomatic efforts.

Colombia and Peru offer contrasting narratives. While Colombia's declining inflation offers some economic respite, broader structural challenges persist. In Peru, the extension of small-scale mining permits has reignited resource conflicts, highlighting governance weaknesses and the risks of social unrest.

The week concludes with a region under immense pressure. Short-term risks include economic disruptions from trade tensions and potential social unrest, while long-term challenges revolve around eroding institutional trust, governance crises, and shifting geopolitical alignments. The need for coordinated multilateral responses and robust domestic policies is more urgent than ever.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(01-12-2024)

The Americas Region faces escalating geopolitical risks this week due to heightened trade tensions spurred by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's tariff threats, political polarization in Brazil, institutional reforms in Mexico, and systemic vulnerabilities in Cuba and Venezuela. The convergence of economic strains, policy misalignments, and governance challenges creates significant uncertainties for regional stability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

Direct (01-12-2024)

U.S. Tariff Threats on Canada and Mexico

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Trade disruptions could destabilize North American economies, increase inflation, and strain USMCA partnerships.

Direct (30-11-2024)

Trump's Tariff Threats on Canada and Mexico

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Trade tensions threaten economic stability in North America, with potential repercussions for supply chains and inflation.

Direct (29-11-2024)

U.S. Tariff Threats on Mexico, Canada, and China

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 7

Assessment: Trump's tariff proposals could destabilize key economic sectors and regional trade frameworks, driving inflation and reducing investment across the Americas.

Direct (01-12-2024)

Bolsonaro's Alleged Coup Plot and Political Comeback

Impacts:

Short-term: 8, Long-term: 7

Assessment: Bolsonaro's actions risk deepening political divisions in Brazil, challenging governance and international perceptions.

Direct (01-12-2024)

Mexico's Institutional Reforms

Impacts:

Short-term: 7, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Centralized oversight may undermine transparency, deter investments, and heighten political opposition.

Direct (01-12-2024)

Venezuela's Simon Bolivar Liberator Law

Impacts:

Short-term: 7, Long-term: 8

Assessment: The law intensifies authoritarianism, further isolates Venezuela, and exacerbates regional diplomatic challenges.

Direct (30-11-2024)

Jair Bolsonaro's Political Comeback and Alleged Coup Plot

Impacts:

Short-term: 8, Long-term: 7

Assessment: Bolsonaro's comeback plans and allegations of a coup plot could deepen Brazil's political instability, complicate governance, and strain international relations.

Direct (30-11-2024)

Mexico's Institutional Reforms

Impacts:

Short-term: 7, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Centralizing oversight could undermine regulatory transparency and democratic checks, affecting market confidence and governance.

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