Global Risk Indexes (14-12-2024)

Global 86 (+1 ▲)
MENA 95 ( —)
APAC 88 (+3 ▲)
Europe 87 (+2 ▲)
Africa 80 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 77 (-1 ▼)
Markets 90 (+3 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Political Violence, Trade Tensions, and Resource Management Dominate the Americas' Agenda

The Americas region is grappling with mounting challenges, from political violence to trade disputes and resource management. In Mexico, the assassination of a senior judge in Acapulco reflects the deepening cartel-driven violence in Guerrero state. This high-profile killing follows a surge of violence, including the murder of politicians and political candidates, and highlights the governance and security challenges faced by President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration in her early months in office.

Canada braces for a trade clash with the incoming U.S. administration. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a robust response to President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on Canadian imports. Potential Canadian countermeasures, including export taxes on uranium and oil, have sparked debates among provincial leaders. Alberta and Saskatchewan's premiers strongly oppose export restrictions, arguing such measures could harm the Canadian economy more than the U.S.

In Brazil, authorities intensify efforts to combat illegal gold mining. Advanced forensic technologies are enabling law enforcement to trace the origins of smuggled gold, a significant breakthrough in tackling environmental destruction and organized crime in the Amazon. The crackdown has already yielded results, with gold seizures rising 38% in 2023. However, enforcement challenges persist, especially given the scale of illicit mining operations backed by powerful criminal organizations.

Argentina and Venezuela highlight strained bilateral relations. Argentina's condemnation of Venezuela's detention of a national security officer, Nahuel Agustin Gallo, exacerbates diplomatic tensions between Presidents Javier Milei and Nicolas Maduro. With Argentina hosting Venezuelan opposition figures, Caracas's actions may further strain regional relations.

Cuba continues to struggle with compounding economic crises. A severe fuel shortage has crippled transportation and exacerbated public frustration, following months of blackouts. Venezuela's reduced crude shipments to Cuba underline the island nation's dependence on fragile international alliances.

Short-term risks include escalating violence in Mexico and economic discontent in Cuba. Long-term stability in the Americas will hinge on addressing structural governance and economic vulnerabilities while fostering effective regional cooperation.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(14-12-2024)

The Americas face elevated geopolitical risks stemming from escalating violence, contentious trade relations, and governance challenges. Key developments include high-profile political violence in Mexico, trade tensions involving Canada and the U.S., and significant strides in tackling illegal mining in Brazil.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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