Global Risk Indexes (10-12-2024)

Global 84 (0 —)
MENA 93 (-2 ▼)
APAC 87 (+1 ▲)
Europe 83 (-1 ▼)
Africa 77 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 78 (+3 ▲)
Markets 87 (+1 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Haiti's Escalating Violence and Americas' Fiscal Pressures Signal Regional Instability

The Americas region is grappling with severe violence and economic uncertainty this week. In Haiti, the death toll from gang violence in Cite Soleil has surpassed 180, primarily targeting elderly residents. This massacre, reportedly ordered by gang leader Monel \Mikano\ Felix, reflects the country's deepening security crisis. The Haitian government has vowed to respond decisively, but limited resources and international delays in supporting the U.N.-backed Multinational Security Support mission hinder meaningful action. Calls from global leaders for increased support and arms trafficking controls remain unmet, exacerbating instability and delaying Haiti's political transition.

Colombia faces fiscal strain as its proposed 12 trillion peso reform struggles to gain traction. Interior Minister Juan Fernando Cristo's acknowledgment of its unviability highlights deeper fiscal challenges, including a 28.4 trillion peso spending cut announced last month. With reduced tax revenues and constrained borrowing capacity, Colombia risks economic stagnation if alternative reforms are not swiftly implemented.

Canada prepares for a pivotal budget update amidst economic and political pressures. The December 16 mini budget, delayed by parliamentary gridlock, is expected to address mounting fiscal deficits and economic challenges exacerbated by U.S. tariff threats. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority government faces declining public support, increasing the stakes for measures that balance fiscal discipline with economic stimulation.

In Venezuela, limited resumption of U.N. human rights activities signals cautious international re-engagement. The ongoing political and human rights crises, compounded by a contested electoral outcome, underscore the fragile governance landscape. Despite partial U.N. operations, the Maduro administration's strained legitimacy complicates broader reconciliation efforts.

Short-term risks include escalating violence in Haiti and fiscal constraints in Colombia and Canada. Long-term stability will depend on effective governance, multilateral cooperation, and sustained support for economic and security reforms across the region.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(10-12-2024)

Geopolitical risks in the Americas are heightened by escalating violence in Haiti, fiscal instability in Colombia, and the fragility of trade and governance frameworks in Canada and Venezuela. These interconnected challenges underscore the urgency for both domestic and international policy responses.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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