Global Risk Indexes (13-12-2024)

Global 85 (0 —)
MENA 95 (+1 ▲)
APAC 85 (-2 ▼)
Europe 85 ( —)
Africa 79 ( —)
AMERs 78 (+1 ▲)
Markets 87 (-2 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Organized Crime, Labor Reforms, and Economic Adjustments Shape the Americas

Organized crime continues to strain governance and economic stability in Ecuador. Thefts from Petroecuador pipelines and facilities, amounting to over $215 million in losses since 2022, underscore the link between hydrocarbon crimes and drug trafficking operations. President Daniel Noboa's administration has increased military patrols and drone surveillance but faces systemic challenges, including judicial inefficiencies and resource constraints. The intertwining of fuel theft and cocaine production highlights the urgency of coordinated regional responses to dismantle these criminal networks.

Mexico advances significant labor reforms for gig workers. The Senate's unanimous approval of protections for platform workers, including access to social security and minimum wage guarantees, aligns Mexico with international labor standards. However, concerns persist about the reforms' impact on business models and the flexibility valued by part-time workers. As the legislation moves toward implementation, its success will depend on balancing worker protections with operational sustainability for companies like Uber and Rappi.

Brazil faces continued economic and political uncertainties. President Luiz In'cio Lula da Silva's health recovery and reaffirmed candidacy for the 2026 election have heightened scrutiny of his administration's fiscal and monetary policies. The central bank's aggressive rate hike to 12.25% signals its resolve to address inflation but also reflects market skepticism about fiscal reforms. Public concerns about rising public debt and economic fragility remain persistent hurdles for Lula's administration.

Canada's provincial responses to U.S. trade threats reveal localized strategies. Alberta's creation of a new border patrol unit emphasizes its proactive approach to addressing U.S. demands for enhanced border security and anti-trafficking measures. With Alberta exporting around 4 million barrels of oil daily to the U.S., the province's economic reliance on American markets underscores the stakes of impending tariffs proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.

Bolivia signals a toughened stance on corruption with the extradition of a former anti-drugs director to the U.S. Maximiliano Davila's extradition on cocaine trafficking charges marks a milestone in Bolivia's crackdown on high-level corruption and drug smuggling. While symbolic, the extradition highlights the challenges of dismantling entrenched criminal networks and restoring public trust in state institutions.

Short-term risks include heightened economic strains and crime-related governance challenges in Ecuador and Mexico. Long-term stability across the Americas will require multilateral cooperation, robust governance reforms, and effective economic policy adjustments to address systemic vulnerabilities.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(13-12-2024)

Geopolitical risks across the Americas remain high, driven by escalating organized crime in Ecuador, trade tensions involving the U.S., and significant fiscal and governance challenges in Brazil and Mexico. These intersecting issues underscore the fragile state of regional stability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

Direct (10-12-2024)

Haiti's Cite Soleil Massacre

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Gang violence severely undermines governance and public safety, requiring urgent international support to stabilize the region.

Direct (06-12-2024)

U.S. Tariff Threats on Canada, Mexico, and China

Impacts:

Short-term: 8, Long-term: 9

Assessment: Proposed tariffs could destabilize North American economies, exacerbate inflation, and spark global trade disruptions.

Direct (02-12-2024)

Canada-U.S. Trade Tensions

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Tariff threats and security demands strain bilateral relations, risking economic disruptions and supply chain instability.

Direct (01-12-2024)

U.S. Tariff Threats on Canada and Mexico

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Trade disruptions could destabilize North American economies, increase inflation, and strain USMCA partnerships.

Direct (30-11-2024)

Trump's Tariff Threats on Canada and Mexico

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Trade tensions threaten economic stability in North America, with potential repercussions for supply chains and inflation.

Direct (08-12-2024)

EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement

Impacts:

Short-term: 7, Long-term: 9

Assessment: The deal creates opportunities for economic integration but will face significant implementation and compliance challenges in Europe and South America.

Direct (07-12-2024)

EU-Mercosur Trade Deal Finalization

Impacts:

Short-term: 7, Long-term: 9

Assessment: The trade deal creates opportunities for economic integration but faces implementation hurdles, particularly in Europe.

Direct (29-11-2024)

U.S. Tariff Threats on Mexico, Canada, and China

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 7

Assessment: Trump's tariff proposals could destabilize key economic sectors and regional trade frameworks, driving inflation and reducing investment across the Americas.

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