Global Risk Indexes (16-12-2024)

Global 87 (+1 ▲)
MENA 96 ( —)
APAC 89 (+2 ▲)
Europe 86 (-1 ▼)
Africa 81 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 76 (-2 ▼)
Markets 91 (+2 ▲)
Safiya Mbeki, Africa region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Safiya Mbeki

Navigating Africa's Complexities with Insight and Integrity

Proxy Conflicts, Governance Failures, and Environmental Challenges Define Africa and MENA Dynamics

Violence in Niger continued to escalate with jihadist attacks killing 39 civilians in Kokorou and Libiri. This surge underscores the fragile security dynamics in the Sahel, where military regimes, despite closer ties to Russia, are failing to counter insurgencies effectively. The Sahel's vulnerability is further compounded by regional instability and the fractured relationships between these regimes and ECOWAS, which remains unable to offer a unified response.

Congo-Rwanda peace talks collapse, signaling deepening tensions in the Great Lakes region. The failure of Angola-mediated negotiations underscores the challenges in reconciling Rwanda's strategic ambitions with Congo's territorial sovereignty. Accusations of Rwanda's military support for M23 rebels highlight the risk of a broader regional conflict, particularly as international pressure on Rwanda remains limited amid shifting U.S. priorities.

Mauritius confronts economic governance scandals with the arrest warrant for a former central bank governor. Allegations of falsified economic data and misuse of central bank reserves highlight systemic governance failings. This could deter foreign investment and exacerbate economic fragility in a nation heavily reliant on its offshore financial services sector.

Clashes near Libya's Zawiya refinery reveal the persistent intersection of resource governance and political instability. Force majeure declared by the National Oil Corporation highlights the fragility of Libya's energy infrastructure, as the country struggles to reconcile rival factions and advance plans for national elections.

Shell's dual narratives in Nigeria highlight contrasting trends. On one hand, the final investment decision on the Bonga North project signals renewed commitment to deepwater oil development, reinforcing Nigeria's role in global energy markets. On the other hand, an oil spill in the Delta highlights persistent environmental and governance challenges in the onshore sector, exacerbating tensions with local communities.

South Africa grapples with air pollution as Sasolburg's emissions cause severe public health issues. The government's struggle to enforce stricter emissions standards reflects broader governance challenges in balancing economic dependency on coal with environmental health imperatives. The rising public health costs and grassroots activism may force a recalibration of energy policy.

Sudan's political gridlock persists, with the U.N. launching a technical committee to address electoral disputes. This effort, while promising, faces significant hurdles given entrenched factional interests and the absence of consensus on transitional governance mechanisms. The continued division between eastern and western factions risks perpetuating instability.

In conclusion, December 16 reflects the intricate interplay of governance failures, resource mismanagement, and international interventions shaping Africa and MENA's geopolitical landscape. While opportunities for economic reform and diplomatic breakthroughs exist, addressing entrenched structural issues remains critical for sustainable progress.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(16-12-2024)

Africa and MENA regions face escalating governance, security, and environmental challenges. Proxy conflicts, resource governance disputes, and industrial pollution dominate the discourse. Opportunities for international mediation and economic reforms emerge, but these are juxtaposed against deep-seated structural vulnerabilities and growing humanitarian crises.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)

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