Global Risk Indexes (16-12-2024)

Global 87 (+1 ▲)
MENA 96 ( —)
APAC 89 (+2 ▲)
Europe 86 (-1 ▼)
Africa 81 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 76 (-2 ▼)
Markets 91 (+2 ▲)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

MENA on Edge: Golan Heights Expansion, Syria's Fragile Stability, and Intensified Regional Alignments

The Middle East continues to experience seismic shifts as Israel escalates its military presence in Syria and Gaza, Syria's transitional government under HTS struggles with legitimacy, and Iran navigates a recalibrated regional strategy post-Assad. These dynamics highlight an increasingly fragmented regional order with significant global implications.

Israel's expansion and military actions in the Golan Heights signal a significant escalation in its approach to territorial security. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plan to double the Israeli population in the occupied Golan Heights, paired with its military occupation of Syrian demilitarized zones such as Mount Hermon, underscores Israel's determination to solidify its northern border. While Netanyahu emphasizes security concerns tied to Syria's post-Assad instability, this move risks heightening tensions with Arab states and undermining fragile regional stability. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan have strongly condemned these actions as violations of international law, further straining relations with Arab countries, including those that normalized ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords.

Syria's transitional government, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammed al-Golani), faces growing challenges in consolidating power. Efforts to assure minorities and international actors of inclusivity have been met with skepticism, particularly due to HTS's controversial history as a former al-Qaeda affiliate. The displacement of tens of thousands of Shi'ite Muslims to Lebanon and the destruction of symbols tied to the Assad regime highlight the enduring sectarian undercurrents. Syria's new leadership must navigate the dual challenges of rebuilding from a 13-year war while maintaining legitimacy on the global stage.

Iran's recalibration reflects strategic shifts as Tehran seeks to adapt to its reduced influence in Syria. Despite heightened IAEA monitoring at the Fordow nuclear facility, Iran's continued enrichment near weapons-grade levels underscores its dual approach of defiance and strategic bargaining. The weakening of Iran's Axis of Resistance post-Assad and its tensions with Turkey over the latter's growing role in Syria further complicate Tehran's efforts to retain relevance. Meanwhile, the suspension of Russian wheat supplies to Syria amid Moscow's reorganization of its military presence adds another layer of economic and logistical pressure to Iran's position.

Gaza's humanitarian crisis remains critical, with Israeli airstrikes killing 53 Palestinians in a single day, including journalists and emergency workers. The destruction of key infrastructure, coupled with allegations of ethnic cleansing by Palestinian authorities, intensifies the humanitarian toll. Mediated truce efforts by Egypt and Qatar face significant hurdles as both sides remain entrenched, further prolonging civilian suffering and regional instability.

Broader regional alignments are also shifting. Turkey has reopened its embassy in Damascus and offered military training to Syria's new government, reflecting Ankara's efforts to deepen its influence in Syria's post-Assad trajectory. This comes alongside Saudi and Qatari diplomatic overtures and France's decision to dispatch diplomats to assess the feasibility of engagement with Syria's new administration. Meanwhile, Russia's partial military withdrawal from Syria signifies a reassessment of its role, but its continued presence in Tartous and Latakia ensures its enduring strategic stake in the region.

Strategic implications: Israel's assertive actions in Gaza and Syria risk escalating regional tensions, particularly as Syria's transition remains fragile. Iran's recalibration and Turkey's growing influence signal a reshuffling of regional dynamics, where traditional alliances and rivalries are being recalibrated. The MENA region's interconnected crises demand careful navigation to prevent broader destabilization and global economic disruptions, particularly in energy markets.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(16-12-2024)

The MENA region faces acute geopolitical risks driven by escalating Israeli actions in Syria and Gaza, Syria's tenuous transition under HTS governance, and Iran's strategic adjustments amidst regional recalibrations. These developments heighten the risk of broader instability while shaping the regional power structure.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

Previous Briefings

See all previous briefings