Global Risk Indexes (18-12-2024)

Global 87 (0 —)
MENA 97 ( —)
APAC 90 (+2 ▲)
Europe 88 (+1 ▲)
Africa 82 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 78 (+1 ▲)
Markets 89 (-1 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Diplomatic Spats, Economic Pressures, and Governance Challenges Define the Americas

The Americas are navigating heightened tensions and policy challenges this week. In Argentina, President Javier Milei intensified diplomatic pressure on Venezuela, demanding the immediate release of an Argentine soldier detained on allegations of infiltration. Venezuelan officials, including Foreign Minister Yvan Gil, accused Argentina's government of involvement in a 'terrorist plan.' These accusations exacerbate the already strained ties between the two nations, stemming from Argentina's rejection of Venezuela's July elections as fraudulent.

Canada unveiled an ambitious border security plan to address U.S. concerns. The $909 million strategy emphasizes advanced surveillance technologies and joint task forces to combat transnational organized crime, drug trafficking, and irregular migration. This initiative reflects Canada's efforts to deflect U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's 25% tariff threats. However, Trudeau's leadership remains under scrutiny, with internal party dissent growing after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's resignation.

Chile's central bank signaled caution amidst cooling inflation. A 25-basis-point rate cut to 5.00% highlights its cautious approach to monetary easing amid inflation concerns. While annual inflation has decreased to 4.2%, it remains above the target range. The bank projects inflation will fluctuate around 5% in the first half of 2025, complicating efforts to stimulate growth in the world's largest copper producer.

The U.S.-Mexico relationship evolves as the U.S. deported notorious drug lord Osiel Cardenas to Mexican authorities. His return marks a significant step in bilateral security cooperation but also highlights Mexico's ongoing struggles with organized crime. The Gulf Cartel's legacy of hyper-violence, linked to Cardenas' leadership, underscores the enduring challenges of combating drug trafficking networks.

Short-term risks include escalating diplomatic and trade tensions involving Argentina, Venezuela, Canada, and the U.S. Long-term stability will depend on robust governance, effective economic reforms, and regional cooperation to mitigate systemic vulnerabilities.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(18-12-2024)

The Americas face heightened geopolitical and economic risks due to diplomatic tensions between Argentina and Venezuela, escalating trade and governance challenges in Canada, and persistent inflation concerns in Chile. These developments underline the interconnected nature of political and economic vulnerabilities across the region.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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