Global Risk Indexes (18-12-2024)

Global 87 (0 —)
MENA 97 ( —)
APAC 90 (+2 ▲)
Europe 88 (+1 ▲)
Africa 82 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 78 (+1 ▲)
Markets 89 (-1 ▼)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Strategic Realignments in MENA: Israel's Militarization, Syria's Fragile Governance, and Iran's Calculated Moves

The Middle East is at a crossroads, with strategic calculations by Israel, Syria, and Iran reflecting both opportunities for influence and the profound risks of miscalculation. These interconnected dynamics are reshaping power alignments in ways that will reverberate beyond the region.

Israel's assertive military strategy reflects its dual objectives of preemptive deterrence and territorial consolidation. The declaration of intent to maintain permanent security control over Gaza highlights Israel's transition from episodic military operations to sustained territorial dominance. Strategically, this raises critical questions about Israel's long-term vision for Gaza'whether it seeks to enforce de facto annexation or aims to neutralize Gaza as a launchpad for resistance groups like Hamas. In Syria, Israel's expanded strikes in the Golan Heights and Damascus suburbs demonstrate its readiness to exploit Syria's transitional instability. However, these actions risk creating new flashpoints by drawing Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and Jordan, into opposition and forcing them to recalibrate their diplomatic engagement with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework.

Syria's transitional government, under HTS leadership, represents a high-stakes experiment in governance after decades of authoritarianism under Assad. Efforts to distance the administration from HTS's Islamist roots by emphasizing inclusivity are crucial for gaining international legitimacy. However, the discovery of mass graves and the exodus of displaced communities highlight the enduring legacy of Syria's sectarian fractures. Strategically, Syria's ability to emerge as a viable state hinges on balancing regional influences. Turkey's deepening engagement in Syria's reconstruction offers an opportunity to anchor stability, yet it also risks exacerbating tensions with Iran, which views Turkey's growing footprint as a direct challenge to its diminished influence post-Assad.

Iran's recalibrations reveal a deliberate strategy to sustain influence amid regional setbacks. Tehran's consolidation of oil revenues through the IRGC reflects its ability to bypass sanctions and fund proxies, securing strategic depth in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon. However, Iran's uranium enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels signals a calculated provocation aimed at forcing Western concessions while deterring potential military action by Israel or the U.S. This dual strategy of defiance and negotiation underscores Tehran's intent to retain its role as a pivotal actor in MENA politics, even as it navigates diminishing leverage in Syria.

Regional alignments are shifting in response to these developments. Western re-engagement with Syria, conditional on governance reforms and minority inclusion, signals a tentative shift toward pragmatic diplomacy. Meanwhile, maritime and economic disruptions in Latakia and Tartous highlight the fragility of Syria's economy and the limits of its transitional government's capacity to address these challenges. Russia's partial withdrawal reflects Moscow's reassessment of its overstretched commitments, though its continued presence in Tartous ensures that it remains a key player in Syria's post-Assad landscape.

Strategic implications: The interconnected nature of these crises reveals the fragility of the regional order. Israel's militarized approach risks entrenching long-term animosities and undermining prospects for stability. Syria's fragile transition underscores the challenges of post-conflict reconstruction in a fragmented state, with the potential for renewed proxy conflicts involving Iran, Turkey, and Russia. Iran's calculated provocations through its nuclear program and economic strategies highlight its resilience but also the risks of escalating proliferation tensions. The broader challenge for global powers lies in managing these crises holistically to prevent regional instability from spiraling into global disruption.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(18-12-2024)

The MENA region's geopolitical landscape reflects a volatile and transformative moment. Israel's actions in Gaza and Syria signal a reassertion of military dominance with long-term destabilizing risks, Syria's fragile governance under HTS risks deepening sectarian divides, and Iran's strategic leveraging of economic and nuclear resources reveals a calculated response to shifting regional dynamics.

Geopolitical Risk Index

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