Global Risk Indexes (17-12-2024)

Global 87 (0 —)
MENA 97 (+1 ▲)
APAC 88 (-1 ▼)
Europe 87 (+1 ▲)
Africa 81 ( —)
AMERs 77 (+1 ▲)
Markets 90 (-1 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Brazil's Political Turmoil, Argentina's Economic Struggles, and Canada's Leadership Crisis Raise Regional Risks

Brazil's political landscape remains volatile as investigations into coup-plotting deepen. The arrest of former Defense Minister Walter Braga Netto and evidence of a plot to kill President Luiz In'cio Lula da Silva have highlighted ongoing challenges to Brazil's democratic stability. While Lula's administration condemns these actions, his push for fiscal reforms faces significant hurdles. The real hit a historic low, closing at 6.09 per U.S. dollar, despite central bank interventions. Market anxiety stems from Lula's criticism of monetary policy and delays in the approval of spending cuts in Congress.

Argentina's economic recovery remains fragile despite marginal GDP growth. Official data showed a 3.9% quarter-on-quarter GDP expansion in Q3, marking a break from recession. However, annual GDP contracted 2.1%, reflecting sustained economic strain under President Javier Milei's austerity drive. While inflation has eased to 166%, poverty rates have surged above 50%, fueling public frustration with rising layoffs and stagnant wages. Milei's policies stabilize inflation but exacerbate social inequality, posing risks to long-term stability.

Canada's leadership crisis threatens its response to U.S. economic pressures. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's unexpected resignation has destabilized Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority government at a critical juncture. Trudeau faces mounting criticism over his spending policies and lack of unity as Canada prepares for potential 25% U.S. tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump. Freeland's departure, alongside growing provincial discontent, complicates Canada's ability to project a 'Team Canada' strategy to mitigate trade risks.

Bolivia's economy continues its downward spiral amid a worsening currency crisis. Inflation has hit its highest level in a decade, while foreign reserves have dropped to critically low levels. Black markets for U.S. dollars have emerged as importers struggle to acquire hard currency, driving up food and fuel prices. Political in-fighting between President Luis Arce and his predecessor Evo Morales exacerbates economic instability, fueling protests and public discontent.

Venezuela's political tensions remain high following the contested July elections. While 533 detained protesters have been released, reports of deaths in custody and opposition claims of electoral fraud highlight continued governance challenges under President Nicolas Maduro. International calls for transparency and accountability remain unanswered, deepening Venezuela's isolation.

Short-term risks include political instability in Brazil and Canada's trade vulnerabilities, while Argentina and Bolivia face escalating economic pressures. Long-term stability in the region hinges on effective governance, economic reforms, and managing U.S. trade relations amidst rising protectionism.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(17-12-2024)

The Americas region faces heightened geopolitical and economic risks driven by political instability in Brazil, mounting economic challenges in Argentina, and Canada's leadership crisis amid U.S. trade threats. Additionally, Bolivia's economic decline and Venezuela's political tensions remain ongoing concerns.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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