Global Risk Indexes (20-12-2024)

Global 88 (-1 ▼)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 90 (-1 ▼)
Europe 89 ( —)
Africa 83 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 78 (-1 ▼)
Markets 90 (-2 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Fiscal Reforms, Trade Disputes, and Evolving Financial Strategies Shape the Americas

Brazil's fiscal reforms face significant dilution as legislative amendments weaken the government's proposed savings package. The Senate's approval of a bill limiting tax benefits and the lower house's changes to public-sector salary controls highlight ongoing challenges in President Luiz In'cio Lula da Silva's efforts to stabilize public accounts. The revised package, projected to save less than the initially estimated 70 billion reais ($11.47 billion), has exacerbated market skepticism about Brazil's fiscal trajectory.

Canada remains under pressure as it navigates U.S. tariff threats and internal political instability. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has reiterated his government's fiscal resilience, while new Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc emphasized the availability of financial reserves to mitigate potential economic fallout. However, Trudeau's minority government faces growing provincial discontent, particularly as Canada finalizes preparations for negotiations with the incoming U.S. administration.

Mexico's central bank signals cautious optimism as inflation slows. Banxico's 25-basis-point rate cut reflects confidence in disinflation progress, with core inflation at its lowest level since 2022. However, U.S. tariff threats and peso volatility underscore the fragility of Mexico's economic recovery amidst global uncertainties.

El Salvador doubles down on its controversial Bitcoin policies despite IMF warnings. President Nayib Bukele's government announced plans to accelerate Bitcoin purchases following a $1.4 billion IMF loan agreement. The move, positioned as a counter-narrative to perceived IMF restrictions, highlights Bukele's commitment to digital currency as a cornerstone of national financial strategy.

Ecuador's IMF-supported economic reforms gain momentum. The country received a $500 million disbursement under its extended fund facility, recognizing significant progress in fiscal and structural reforms. The IMF's endorsement bolsters confidence in Ecuador's financial stabilization efforts amid broader regional economic challenges.

Short-term risks include fiscal instability in Brazil and trade disputes involving Canada and the U.S. Long-term resilience across the Americas will depend on robust governance, economic reform implementation, and multilateral cooperation to navigate systemic vulnerabilities.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(20-12-2024)

Geopolitical risks in the Americas remain elevated, driven by fiscal policy challenges in Brazil, trade tensions involving Canada, evolving U.S.-Mexico relations, and economic policy adjustments in El Salvador and Ecuador. These intersecting developments reflect the fragility of governance and economic stability across the region.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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