Global Risk Indexes (20-12-2024)

Global 88 (-1 ▼)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 90 (-1 ▼)
Europe 89 ( —)
Africa 83 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 78 (-1 ▼)
Markets 90 (-2 ▼)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

MENA in Flux: Israel's Aggressive Posture, Syria's Transitional Fragility, and Iran's Strategic Resilience

The Middle East continues to experience profound geopolitical upheaval as Israel's military operations expand, Syria's transitional government struggles to consolidate power, and Iran refines its regional strategies in response to external pressures and internal demands.

Israel's military strategy has reached a new phase of assertiveness, with extensive airstrikes in Gaza targeting Hamas command structures and intensified operations in Syria. The strikes in Gaza, which have resulted in over 45,000 Palestinian deaths since October 2023, underscore a calculated effort to neutralize Hamas while maintaining long-term military control over the enclave. In Syria, Israeli airstrikes on sites near the Golan Heights and Damascus signal a broader strategic objective: ensuring that post-Assad Syria does not become a platform for Iranian-aligned forces to regroup. However, these actions risk deepening animosities and straining Israel's relations with regional actors, including Saudi Arabia and Jordan, who have condemned the ongoing offensives.

Syria's transitional government, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), faces mounting challenges as it seeks to balance governance reforms with international demands. The removal of Baath Party references from educational curricula reflects an attempt to signal a break from Assad-era policies, but underlying sectarian tensions and infrastructure deficits remain significant obstacles. Western re-engagement, including high-profile visits by U.S. diplomats, signals cautious optimism but hinges on HTS's ability to distance itself from its Islamist roots and foster inclusivity. The discovery of mass graves and ongoing displacements highlight the transitional government's challenges in achieving national reconciliation and securing international legitimacy.

Iran's strategic recalibrations demonstrate resilience amid escalating U.S. sanctions and regional confrontations. The United States' recent targeting of vessels linked to Iranian oil exports reflects a renewed focus on disrupting Tehran's revenue streams, which fund proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. In response, Iran has leveraged its control over key economic sectors, including petrochemicals, to sustain its regional influence. Simultaneously, Tehran's proxies, such as the Houthis, continue to engage in asymmetric warfare, exemplified by missile attacks on Israel. Iran's nuclear program remains a central flashpoint, with its enrichment activities nearing weapons-grade levels despite IAEA oversight.

Regional economic dynamics add complexity to the MENA landscape. Falling oil prices, driven by weak demand forecasts from China, pose challenges for Gulf economies, even as they continue diversification efforts. The Gulf Cooperation Council's coordinated rate cuts, following the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision, underscore the region's reliance on global economic trends. Saudi Arabia's strategic investment in mining projects, including lithium extraction, highlights a long-term vision to reduce economic vulnerabilities and enhance resource-based diversification.

Strategic implications: The intertwined crises in Gaza, Syria, and Iran highlight the fragility of the regional order. Israel's aggressive military posture risks exacerbating tensions with Arab states and prolonging instability. Syria's fragile transition underscores the difficulties of post-conflict reconstruction and the risks of renewed factionalism. Iran's resilience reflects its capacity to adapt to external pressures, but its nuclear ambitions and reliance on proxies amplify the risk of broader conflicts. These developments demand coordinated international engagement to mitigate risks and address long-term challenges.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(20-12-2024)

The MENA region's risks remain acute as Israel intensifies operations in Gaza and Syria, Syria's transitional government grapples with sectarian and governance challenges, and Iran adapts its strategies amid escalating sanctions and proxy conflicts. Regional stability is under strain, with significant long-term ramifications.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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