Global Risk Indexes (02-01-2025)

Global 93 (+1 ▲)
MENA 98 (+1 ▲)
APAC 95 ( —)
Europe 94 ( —)
Africa 86 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 91 (+1 ▲)
Markets 95 (+2 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Migration Crises, Fiscal Fragility, and Strategic Rivalries Intensify Challenges Across the Americas

Geopolitical dynamics in the Americas continue to evolve amid intensifying migration crises, fiscal vulnerabilities, and external power rivalries. The killing of a Mexican migration officer in Ciudad Juarez underscores the deepening crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border. With President-elect Donald Trump's anticipated rollback of Biden-era migration policies, tensions are set to rise further, risking humanitarian fallout and straining U.S.-Mexico relations. Mexico's ability to navigate this pressure will be critical as it balances trade dependency on the U.S. with domestic political stability amidst mounting public dissatisfaction.

Brazil remains at the center of regional economic and diplomatic recalibrations. President Luiz In'cio Lula da Silva's push for a Mercosur-UAE partnership and Embraer's expanded defense exports highlight Brazil's dual focus on economic diversification and global outreach. However, systemic fiscal challenges, including a projected public debt surpassing 81% of GDP by 2026, and inflationary pressures threaten the long-term viability of these efforts. Gabriel Galipolo's appointment as Brazil's central bank governor raises concerns over potential political influence on monetary policy, adding to market uncertainty.

Venezuela's partial economic recovery illustrates the complexities of navigating governance fragility and international diplomacy. While the 9% GDP growth in 2024 reflects gains from hydrocarbons and informal dollarization, systemic corruption and inequality persist as barriers to sustained progress. Controlled prisoner releases by the Maduro regime underscore a strategic effort to project reforms without addressing fundamental governance deficits, limiting Venezuela's international credibility.

Caribbean infrastructure and security vulnerabilities demand urgent attention. Puerto Rico's catastrophic power outage highlights systemic governance inefficiencies, with the failure of critical infrastructure intensifying calls for long-term modernization efforts. Meanwhile, Trinidad and Tobago's gang-related violence demonstrates the region's broader susceptibility to organized crime and underscores the need for integrated regional security frameworks to counteract these threats.

Commodities markets underscore the Americas' strategic role in global trade amidst heightened resource vulnerabilities. Surges in cocoa, coffee, and soybean prices reflect the intersection of climate change, agricultural challenges, and geopolitical instability. Brazil's dominance in soybean exports positions it as a key player in the U.S.-China trade rivalry, but effective resource management will be critical for sustaining long-term growth without exacerbating environmental risks.

Short-term risks include escalating migration pressures, fiscal instability in Brazil, and infrastructure crises in Puerto Rico. Over the long term, addressing governance fragilities, enhancing multilateral cooperation, and strengthening economic resilience will be essential to navigating the Americas' multifaceted challenges in an increasingly fragmented global order.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(02-01-2025)

The Americas confront escalating geopolitical and economic challenges, reflecting a delicate balance between domestic governance crises and external pressures. Key developments highlight migration and security concerns, fiscal instability, and resource management struggles, all occurring against the backdrop of heightened U.S.-China rivalry and ideological polarization within the region.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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