Global Risk Indexes (01-01-2025)

Global 92 (0 —)
MENA 97 ( —)
APAC 95 ( —)
Europe 94 (-1 ▼)
Africa 84 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 90 (+1 ▲)
Markets 93 (-1 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Migration, Fiscal Pressures, and Resource Diplomacy Reshape the Americas' Strategic Landscape

The Americas enter 2025 confronting overlapping crises in migration, economic stability, and resource management. Migration tensions at the U.S.-Mexico border escalated following the killing of a Mexican migration officer in Ciudad Juarez. The incident underscores the growing desperation of migrants seeking entry into the U.S. ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's restrictive policies. Mexico faces a dual challenge: managing internal unrest while preserving vital trade relations with the U.S., its largest economic partner.

Brazil remains a focal point for regional diplomacy and economic recalibration. President Luiz In'cio Lula da Silva's push for a Mercosur-UAE partnership demonstrates Brazil's efforts to diversify its economic alliances amidst growing fiscal pressures. Meanwhile, the sale of Embraer's Super Tucano aircraft to an unnamed African client underscores Brazil's ambitions to consolidate its defense export market while leveraging soft power to strengthen ties with nontraditional partners. However, the government's ongoing fiscal challenges and a projected public debt exceeding 81% of GDP pose significant risks to sustained economic recovery.

Venezuela's reported 9% economic growth in 2024 highlights the complexities of its partial recovery. While President Nicol's Maduro touts growth in hydrocarbons and informal dollarization, systemic governance weaknesses and social inequality undermine the long-term sustainability of this recovery. The controlled prisoner releases, though symbolically significant, reflect Maduro's strategy of offering limited reforms to maintain internal control and external engagement.

Puerto Rico's catastrophic power outage underscores the fragility of the island's infrastructure and governance. With 90% of the population initially without power, the failure of an underground line highlights chronic neglect in utility investments and governance inefficiencies. Governor Jenniffer Gonz'lez's proposed energy task force offers a glimmer of hope, but systemic reforms will be critical to restoring public trust and ensuring sustainable infrastructure modernization in the U.S. territory.

Commodities markets reflect the Americas' dual role as a driver of global trade and a region vulnerable to resource instability. Brazil's dominance in soybean exports positions it strategically amidst U.S.-China trade tensions, while cocoa and coffee price surges highlight the region's exposure to climate risks and agricultural vulnerabilities. Effective resource management will be crucial to balancing economic opportunity with sustainability in the face of escalating global competition.

Short-term risks include escalating migration tensions, fiscal challenges in Brazil, and infrastructure crises in Puerto Rico. Over the long term, the Americas must address governance fragilities, foster economic diversification, and build resilience against external shocks to maintain stability and assert a unified regional stance in an increasingly fragmented global order.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(01-01-2025)

The Americas face heightened geopolitical, economic, and governance challenges as migration crises, fiscal vulnerabilities, and resource management struggles define the region's outlook. Venezuela's managed economic recovery, Brazil's strategic balancing, and Puerto Rico's infrastructure fragilities reveal the complexities of addressing systemic pressures in an era of geopolitical recalibrations and domestic turbulence.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

Direct (25-12-2024)

Haiti's Gang Control and Regional Instability

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 9

Assessment: Haiti's collapse threatens regional security and economic stability, demanding coordinated international intervention to prevent further escalation.

Direct (01-01-2025)

Migration Tensions at U.S.-Mexico Border

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Migration pressures threaten to strain U.S.-Mexico relations and exacerbate humanitarian crises, requiring coordinated binational policy responses.

Direct (01-01-2025)

Brazil's Economic Diplomacy and Fiscal Challenges

Impacts:

Short-term: 8, Long-term: 9

Assessment: Economic diversification efforts must contend with fiscal vulnerabilities, emphasizing the need for strategic reforms to sustain growth.

Direct (31-12-2024)

Migration and Security Challenges at U.S.-Mexico Border

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Migration tensions risk straining U.S.-Mexico relations while exacerbating humanitarian crises and domestic political pressures.

Direct (31-12-2024)

Brazil's Economic Diplomacy with Mercosur-UAE Partnership

Impacts:

Short-term: 8, Long-term: 9

Assessment: The partnership reflects Brazil's efforts to diversify its economic base, but domestic fiscal pressures pose significant risks to its success.

Direct (30-12-2024)

Trinidad and Tobago's State of Emergency Amid Gang Violence

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: The security crisis highlights the fragility of state control in the Caribbean and risks broader destabilization in the region.

Direct (29-12-2024)

Trump's Panama Canal and Cartel Policies

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Trump's rhetoric risks fracturing U.S.-Latin American relations and emboldening alternative alignments with China, undermining regional autonomy.

Direct (24-12-2024)

Trump's Provocative Remarks on Panama Canal and Greenland

Impacts:

Short-term: 8, Long-term: 9

Assessment: Trump's rhetoric risks alienating regional allies and driving Latin America closer to competing powers like China.

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