Global Risk Indexes (01-01-2025)

Global 92 (0 —)
MENA 97 ( —)
APAC 95 ( —)
Europe 94 (-1 ▼)
Africa 84 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 90 (+1 ▲)
Markets 93 (-1 ▼)
Mei Ling, Asia Pacific region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mei Ling

Empowering minds, shaping decisions: Insights from the heart of geopolitics

Asia-Pacific Geopolitical Outlook: Leadership Challenges, Strategic Alliances, and Environmental Realities Define the New Year

The Asia-Pacific enters 2025 with compounded geopolitical, economic, and environmental challenges, underscoring a turbulent and transformative era for the region.

South Korea: Leadership Paralysis Amid National Mourning: Acting President Choi Sang-mok's focus on stabilizing governance following the nation's deadliest aviation disaster is met with growing political unrest. The mass resignation of senior aides from the administration of impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol reflects a fractured political establishment. With Fitch signaling potential credit downgrades, South Korea's ability to address internal crises and engage effectively in the Indo-Pacific security framework is under significant strain.

China-Russia Strategic Coordination Deepens: Chinese President Xi Jinping's New Year reaffirmation of Sino-Russian strategic alignment highlights a consolidated anti-Western front. Beijing's rhetoric on Taiwan, coupled with Russia's growing dependence on Chinese economic and military support, signals a recalibration of global power dynamics. This partnership, extending into military, economic, and technological domains, complicates U.S. and allied strategies in the Indo-Pacific and Europe.

North Korea: Aggression and Symbolic Diplomacy: Kim Jong Un's attendance at New Year's celebrations alongside his daughter and senior officials is a symbolic assertion of regime continuity. However, Pyongyang's continued military provocations, backed by deepened ties with Russia, suggest an emboldened posture. The regime's focus on expanding its strategic influence amid domestic hardships presents escalating risks for regional stability.

Myanmar's Junta Prepares for Controversial Elections: The junta's reliance on a deeply flawed census to prepare for elections underscores a strategy to entrench military dominance while sidelining opposition groups. With nearly half the population residing in inaccessible conflict zones, the junta's credibility is further eroded, risking prolonged unrest and international isolation. The absence of the Rohingya population in the census highlights ongoing systemic exclusion and human rights concerns.

Bangladesh-India Relations Amid Domestic Consolidation: Bangladesh's commemorative march for victims of the July revolution underscores a fragile social and political recovery process. The interim government's push for national unity contrasts with the lingering diplomatic strain over Sheikh Hasina's extradition. This dynamic creates an opening for Beijing to deepen its influence in South Asia through strategic investments and diplomatic overtures.

Environmental Challenges and Economic Realignments: China's record-breaking warmth in 2024 and its impact on agriculture highlight the intensifying urgency of climate adaptation policies. Concurrently, Beijing's sale of its Sun Art Retail Group stake reflects a strategic pivot to core e-commerce operations amid broader economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, Indonesia's luxury VAT adjustments aim to balance fiscal consolidation with consumer confidence, reflecting the intricate interplay of economic and policy decisions shaping the region.

The Asia-Pacific's trajectory in 2025 will be defined by its capacity to navigate intersecting political crises, strategic competition, and environmental pressures. A coordinated and forward-looking approach is essential to fostering stability in this increasingly contested region.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Asia Pacific
(01-01-2025)

The Asia-Pacific region continues to navigate a precarious environment of political instability, evolving strategic alliances, and pressing environmental challenges. Leadership crises, aggressive military posturing, and economic uncertainties reflect a region in flux, demanding strategic recalibration by key stakeholders.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Asia Pacific (See All Global)

Previous Briefings

See all previous briefings