Global Risk Indexes (31-12-2024)

Global 92 (0 —)
MENA 97 (-1 ▼)
APAC 95 ( —)
Europe 95 ( —)
Africa 83 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 89 (+1 ▲)
Markets 94 (+1 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Migration Crises, Resource Struggles, and Strategic Diplomacy Shape the Americas' End-of-Year Turbulence

The Americas region concludes the year grappling with a mix of systemic governance issues, economic challenges, and geopolitical shifts. The death of a Mexican migration officer in Ciudad Juarez underlines the escalating tensions surrounding migration policies as migrants race to enter the U.S. before President-elect Donald Trump's anticipated clampdowns. Trump's promise to reverse Biden-era programs highlights the intersection of migration and security policies, raising fears of greater humanitarian crises and strained U.S.-Mexico relations.

Brazil positions itself as a diplomatic and economic bridge, seeking to solidify trade and infrastructure partnerships amidst domestic fiscal challenges. President Luiz In'cio Lula da Silva's commitment to advancing a Mercosur-UAE economic partnership signals a strategic pivot toward diversifying economic alliances. Simultaneously, Vale's resolution of longstanding railway disputes with the Brazilian government reflects a broader trend of rebalancing state-private sector relations, yet it underscores persistent fiscal pressures in an economy grappling with high debt projections and inflation concerns.

Venezuela's controlled prisoner releases mark a calculated move by the Maduro regime to ease domestic tensions and signal measured cooperation with international actors. However, the broader context of contested elections and systemic governance deficits limits the scope of this gesture in rebuilding Venezuela's international credibility. This move aligns with Maduro's strategy of presenting partial reforms while consolidating internal control, reflecting the interplay of international optics and authoritarian resilience.

Commodities markets in the Americas are poised for a volatile 2025, reflecting structural supply and demand mismatches. The surge in cocoa and coffee prices highlights vulnerabilities in agricultural supply chains tied to climate risks and geopolitical instability in producing regions. Meanwhile, Brazilian soybean exports, positioned to capitalize on U.S.-China trade tensions, underscore the strategic role of resource economies in the region's global trade dynamics.

Short-term risks include escalating migration tensions at the U.S.-Mexico border and fiscal challenges in Brazil, alongside the strategic recalibrations of Venezuela's diplomatic posture. Over the long term, the Americas must address systemic governance deficits, foster economic diversification, and build resilience against external economic and climate shocks to navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape effectively.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(31-12-2024)

The Americas region continues to face overlapping governance, economic, and security crises, reflecting systemic fragilities in managing external pressures and internal disruptions. Diplomatic recalibrations, labor and migration challenges, and Venezuela's political turbulence underscore the complexities of navigating a fragmented geopolitical landscape.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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