Global Risk Indexes (31-12-2024)

Global 92 (0 —)
MENA 97 (-1 ▼)
APAC 95 ( —)
Europe 95 ( —)
Africa 83 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 89 (+1 ▲)
Markets 94 (+1 ▲)
Safiya Mbeki, Africa region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Safiya Mbeki

Navigating Africa's Complexities with Insight and Integrity

Energy Advances and Economic Reforms Shape Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on December 31

South Africa's nuclear energy advances, marked by the successful refit and reconnection of the Koeberg nuclear plant's second unit, represent a milestone in addressing its chronic energy shortages. The plant's uninterrupted electricity supply over the past nine months has boosted business confidence and signaled a potential shift in South Africa's energy trajectory. The expansion of nuclear capacity, including plans for an additional 2,500 MW, aligns with economic and environmental priorities but requires robust funding and public-private partnerships to sustain momentum.

Kenya's inflation rate, which rose modestly to 3.0% in December from 2.8% the previous month, remains within the central bank's target range. The central bank's recent 75 basis point rate cut reflects a strategic effort to stimulate economic growth amid manageable inflation levels. However, maintaining fiscal discipline while fostering growth remains a delicate balance, especially given Kenya's vulnerability to external shocks such as global commodity price fluctuations.

Egypt's GDP growth acceleration, rising to 3.5% in Q1 of the 2024/25 fiscal year from 2.7% a year earlier, reflects incremental progress in economic recovery. The uptick highlights the impact of fiscal adjustments and sectoral reforms. Sustaining this growth trajectory will require continued investment in infrastructure, improved governance, and diversification efforts to reduce reliance on external financing and imports.

U.S. repatriation of Guantanamo detainee Ridah Bin Saleh Al-Yazidi to Tunisia underscores the complex intersection of security, justice, and diplomacy in Africa. Tunisia's ability to manage reintegration while ensuring national security will be pivotal, especially given the volatile regional security environment in North Africa. The move also raises broader questions about the fate of remaining Guantanamo detainees and the role of African nations in addressing global security challenges.

South Africa's energy narrative underscores the broader potential for African nations to align economic growth with sustainability goals. The revival of nuclear power projects, such as the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor, presents an opportunity for South Africa to reassert itself as a leader in clean energy innovation. However, lessons from past project failures emphasize the importance of financial viability and strategic partnerships.

In conclusion, December 31 reflects Africa's dual narrative of progress and persistent challenges. Advances in energy and economic reform showcase resilience, while security and governance complexities demand sustained engagement. Regional collaboration and global partnerships remain crucial for leveraging opportunities and addressing vulnerabilities.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(31-12-2024)

Africa's socio-economic landscape on December 31 showcases cautious progress in energy and economic reforms, juxtaposed with enduring security and governance challenges. Notable developments include South Africa's advances in nuclear energy, Kenya's inflation trends, and Egypt's GDP growth acceleration. Regional stability and resilience depend on sustained policy coherence and international cooperation to address systemic vulnerabilities.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)

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