Global Risk Indexes (30-12-2024)

Global 92 (0 —)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 95 (+1 ▲)
Europe 95 ( —)
Africa 84 ( —)
AMERs 88 (-1 ▼)
Markets 93 (-1 ▼)
Safiya Mbeki, Africa region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Safiya Mbeki

Navigating Africa's Complexities with Insight and Integrity

Elections, Energy Developments, and Governance Define Africa's Geopolitical Outlook on December 30

Chad's parliamentary elections were held amid an opposition boycott, consolidating President Mahamat Idriss Deby's control. The elections, part of Chad's transition to constitutional rule, occurred against the backdrop of deep political divisions and socio-economic grievances. Opposition groups allege that the process lacks credibility, raising concerns about long-term governance stability. Chad's strategic position in the Sahel and its role as a key ally in counter-terrorism amplify the stakes of these elections for regional stability.

Egypt's Suez Canal expansion, despite regional challenges, highlights efforts to enhance the canal's strategic importance. A new 10-kilometer channel extension increases capacity and emergency handling, yet Yemen's Houthi militant attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes have caused a $7 billion revenue drop in 2024. The expansion underscores Egypt's resilience in leveraging its geographic advantage, but the country must address external threats and diversify revenue streams to mitigate vulnerabilities.

Nigeria's Warri refinery revival marks a critical step toward reducing fuel import dependency. Operating at 60% capacity after nearly a decade of shutdowns, the refinery reflects incremental progress in reviving Nigeria's state-owned refining sector. However, systemic issues of corruption and operational inefficiency must be addressed to sustain refinery operations and capitalize on the Dangote Refinery's contributions to energy security.

Kenya's protests against alleged extrajudicial abductions reflect growing discontent with state security practices. Demonstrations, led by opposition figures, have highlighted concerns over governance and accountability, particularly as the protests cut across traditional ethnic lines. Kenya's government faces mounting pressure to reform its security apparatus and address public grievances to prevent further erosion of trust.

Ivory Coast's cocoa sector faces weather-induced risks as the Harmattan wind intensifies, jeopardizing bean quality for February's harvest. The lack of rain in major cocoa-producing regions signals potential supply disruptions, impacting global markets. Ivory Coast's government and industry stakeholders must prioritize adaptive strategies to mitigate the economic repercussions of climate variability on the country's vital cocoa industry.

South Africa's economic struggles continue, with the rand weakening amid year-end trading volatility. Rising fuel prices and fiscal constraints weigh on consumer confidence, while structural economic challenges persist. Policy reforms and investor confidence-building measures remain critical to reversing South Africa's economic downturn and stabilizing its currency.

In conclusion, December 30 underscores the multifaceted challenges facing Africa, from governance reform to climate resilience and economic diversification. Addressing these systemic vulnerabilities requires coordinated regional approaches and sustained international engagement to foster resilience and growth.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(30-12-2024)

Africa's geopolitical and socio-economic landscape on December 30 highlights the continent's enduring governance challenges, resource-driven opportunities, and socio-political unrest. Developments in Chad's elections, Egypt's Suez Canal expansion amid revenue losses, and Nigeria's partial refinery revival underscore the interplay of economic imperatives and governance fragilities. Regional stability remains contingent on sustained reforms and international cooperation.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)

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