Global Risk Indexes (31-12-2024)

Global 92 (0 —)
MENA 97 (-1 ▼)
APAC 95 ( —)
Europe 95 ( —)
Africa 83 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 89 (+1 ▲)
Markets 94 (+1 ▲)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

MENA 2024 Ends Amid Geopolitical Upheavals: Israeli Offensives, Syrian Transition, and Turkey-Kurdish Dynamics

The Middle East closes 2024 on a precarious note, with Israel's military actions intensifying, Syria navigating post-Assad governance, Turkey pursuing dual strategies on the Kurdish issue, and Gulf economies recalibrating amidst shifting energy dynamics. These developments underscore a fragile geopolitical order.

Israel's military operations remain expansive, targeting Iranian-aligned proxies and infrastructure across Gaza, Yemen, and Syria. The interception of a missile targeting Ben Gurion Airport and a power station near Jerusalem by the Houthis exemplifies the regional escalation. Israeli Ambassador to the U.N., Danny Danon, issued a stern warning to the Houthis and Tehran, underscoring Israel's resolve to strike any target in the Middle East. Meanwhile, strikes on Gaza's civilian infrastructure, including hospitals, exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, drawing widespread international criticism. These actions, while aimed at preemptive deterrence, risk inflaming tensions and further polarizing the region.

Syria's transitional government faces challenges of inclusivity and reconstruction. De facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa's call for a national dialogue signals an intent to foster broader participation, but questions remain over the integration of diverse factions and the role of former opposition groups. Kuwait's overtures to reopen diplomatic relations with Damascus, alongside broader Gulf Cooperation Council engagement, reflect a pragmatic shift toward regional reintegration. However, the integration of foreign jihadists into military roles under HTS's leadership raises alarms about governance and long-term stability.

Turkey's approach to Kurdish issues continues to balance negotiation and confrontation. The Pentagon's confirmation of a ceasefire around Manbij reflects U.S. efforts to mediate between Ankara and the Kurdish-led SDF. However, Turkey's imposition of a fuel tax hike amidst inflation concerns and its simultaneous regional development initiatives signal domestic pressures influencing its foreign policy. Ankara's ongoing military campaigns against Kurdish groups complicate its relations with Western allies, particularly the U.S., which relies on Kurdish forces in counter-ISIS operations.

Economic recalibrations across the Gulf and North Africa reflect underlying vulnerabilities and adaptive strategies. Iraq's approval of the Basrah-Haditha oil pipeline, aimed at optimizing crude transport, underscores its focus on stabilizing and expanding its energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, Dubai's stock market has reached its highest level in a decade, showcasing investor optimism amidst broader regional economic challenges. Rising oil prices, driven by Chinese manufacturing recovery, offer short-term relief but do little to address longer-term demand uncertainties and structural reforms required across the region.

Strategic implications: The MENA region faces an intricate web of crises as it transitions into 2025. Israel's preemptive military strategies risk deepening proxy wars, Syria's governance struggles highlight the complexities of post-conflict reconstruction, and Turkey's Kurdish policies reflect the fragile nature of its regional alliances. Economic initiatives in Iraq and the Gulf underscore a recognition of the need for diversification and infrastructure improvements but remain contingent on broader political stability. Without sustained international engagement and conflict resolution mechanisms, the region's trajectory risks prolonged instability and fragmentation.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(31-12-2024)

The MENA region remains on the edge of significant geopolitical transformations. Israel's continued military escalations, Syria's fragile governance and external engagements, Turkey's nuanced Kurdish strategies, and the Gulf's economic recalibrations illustrate a complex interplay of conflict and cooperation shaping the region.

Geopolitical Risk Index

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