Global Risk Indexes (24-12-2024)

Global 90 (0 —)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 93 (+1 ▲)
Europe 90 (-1 ▼)
Africa 85 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 82 (-1 ▼)
Markets 91 (+1 ▲)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

MENA on the Brink: Israeli Military Escalations, Syrian Transition Struggles, and Regional Alignments

The Middle East remains a volatile geopolitical landscape as Israel's military operations expand, Syria's transitional government faces mounting governance challenges, and regional alignments intensify. These developments reveal the precarious balance of power shaping the future of the region.

Israel's expansive military strategy highlights its focus on neutralizing threats across multiple fronts. The admission by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz of the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran underscores the breadth of Israel's reach and its willingness to target perceived threats wherever they arise. In Gaza, the closure of Kamal Adwan Hospital amid intensified airstrikes exemplifies the dire humanitarian situation, with over 45,200 Palestinians killed since October 2023. Simultaneously, the interception of missiles fired from Yemen signals the widening scope of Israel's security concerns, drawing Iran-aligned proxies like the Houthis into direct confrontation.

Syria's transitional government, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa and HTS, remains at the center of the region's shifting dynamics. Recent meetings with Qatari and Jordanian officials indicate growing regional engagement with the new administration. Qatar's readiness to invest in Syria's energy and port sectors highlights a potential economic lifeline, though concerns over HTS's Islamist roots persist. Meanwhile, Turkish President Erdogan's close dialogue with Sharaa reflects Ankara's strategic priorities in shaping Syria's post-Assad trajectory, particularly concerning Kurdish disarmament. These developments underscore the delicate interplay of regional and international influences shaping Syria's future.

Turkey's anti-Kurdish campaign has escalated, with Ankara demanding the disbandment of Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria. The proposed disarmament of the YPG, seen by Turkey as a terrorist extension of the PKK, remains a contentious issue. Kurdish leaders warn that Turkish-backed offensives risk dismantling their autonomy and jeopardizing stability in regions like Kobani. This tension, coupled with U.N. envoy Geir Pedersen's warnings of dramatic consequences if political resolutions fail, highlights the stakes involved in addressing Syria's northeastern conflict.

Iran's strategic maneuvers continue to complicate the regional picture. Tehran's ability to sustain proxy operations, including Houthi missile launches targeting Israel, reflects its reliance on asymmetric tactics to exert influence. The growing defense cooperation between Iran and Russia, marked by preparations for a comprehensive cooperation agreement, underscores their shared interest in countering U.S. influence. However, this alignment also raises concerns about the potential for intensified proxy conflicts in the region.

Regional economic dynamics present both opportunities and challenges. Gulf economies, while benefitting from stabilized oil prices, face long-term uncertainties tied to global market fluctuations. Qatar's readiness to invest in Syria and the potential lifting of sanctions underscore the critical role of economic recovery in stabilizing the region. Yet, these efforts must navigate the complexities of rebuilding a fractured post-conflict state.

Strategic implications: The MENA region's interconnected crises demand careful navigation. Israel's multi-front military approach risks entrenching long-term conflicts, while Syria's transitional government faces an uphill battle to gain legitimacy and rebuild. Turkey's actions against Kurdish factions risk igniting broader regional tensions, and Iran's asymmetric strategies underscore the persistence of unresolved power struggles. These developments highlight the urgent need for coordinated international efforts to address the root causes of instability and lay the groundwork for sustainable peace.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(24-12-2024)

Geopolitical risks in the MENA region remain exceptionally high as Israel broadens its military campaigns, Syria's transition navigates mounting internal and external pressures, and Turkey intensifies its anti-Kurdish operations amidst increasing regional alignment. These dynamics underscore the region's ongoing volatility and potential for escalated conflict.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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