Global Risk Indexes (23-12-2024)

Global 90 (+1 ▲)
MENA 98 (-1 ▼)
APAC 92 (+1 ▲)
Europe 91 ( —)
Africa 84 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 83 (+4 ▲)
Markets 90 (-3 ▼)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

MENA in Escalation: Israeli Campaigns, Syrian Transitional Struggles, and Intensified Kurdish-Turkish Conflict

The Middle East continues to witness significant geopolitical shifts as key regional players pursue conflicting objectives amidst growing instability. Israel's aggressive military posture, Syria's transitional uncertainties, Turkey's escalating anti-Kurdish operations, and Iran's adaptive strategies underscore the region's interconnected crises.

Israel's military campaigns reflect its broader strategy of preemptive deterrence and territorial consolidation. In Gaza, the closure of Kamal Adwan Hospital amidst relentless airstrikes highlights the deepening humanitarian crisis, with over 45,200 Palestinian casualties reported since the conflict's inception. Meanwhile, in Yemen, Israeli strikes on Houthi-controlled infrastructure signify a widening scope of military engagement, targeting Iranian-aligned proxies as part of a broader regional strategy. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's rhetoric emphasizes a long-term commitment to neutralizing threats, but Israel's approach risks further polarizing the region and undermining international mediation efforts.

Syria's transitional government, under HTS leadership, faces a pivotal moment as it seeks to consolidate power while addressing international skepticism and internal discord. The appointment of Murhaf Abu Qasra as defense minister and efforts to restructure the military highlight attempts to centralize authority. However, sectarian challenges and the anticipated mass return of refugees in 2025 present significant risks to stability. Turkey's influence in shaping Syria's post-Assad landscape, alongside its demands for Kurdish disarmament, positions Ankara as a key player but also exacerbates tensions with Kurdish factions and their international backers.

Turkey's intensified operations against Kurdish forces signal a critical escalation in northern Syria. Turkish-backed groups have capitalized on Syria's transitional flux to advance against the SDF, reflecting Ankara's determination to neutralize what it perceives as a long-term security threat. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's assertion that the YPG must disband underscores Turkey's hardline stance, further complicating U.S.-Turkey relations. Washington's support for the SDF as a counter-ISIS ally contrasts sharply with Ankara's opposition, creating a strategic dilemma for both NATO partners.

Iran's recalibrations amidst intensified sanctions and military pressures reveal its capacity for strategic adaptation. The IRGC's control over key economic sectors, including oil, sustains Tehran's regional operations despite economic strain. Missile strikes by Houthi proxies on Israeli targets reflect Iran's use of asymmetric tactics to project power and maintain relevance. However, escalating nuclear activities, coupled with renewed U.S. sanctions, heighten proliferation risks and potential regional confrontations.

Regional and global dynamics: The broader economic and political context compounds these crises. Falling oil prices challenge Gulf economies, highlighting vulnerabilities despite diversification efforts. In Syria, foreign engagement, including U.S. airstrikes against Houthi assets and Turkey's direct involvement, underscores the growing complexity of external actors' roles in shaping the region's trajectory.

Strategic implications: The intersecting crises across Gaza, Syria, and Kurdish territories reveal a fragile geopolitical balance, where unilateral actions risk exacerbating fragmentation and prolonging instability. Effective conflict resolution requires coordinated international engagement to address both immediate challenges and the underlying structural vulnerabilities of the region. Failure to do so risks entrenching cycles of violence and deepening regional polarization.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(23-12-2024)

The MENA region faces escalating risks as Israel intensifies its military campaigns, Syria's transitional government navigates sectarian and governance challenges, Turkey advances its anti-Kurdish agenda, and Iran recalibrates its strategy amidst sustained external pressures. These dynamics reinforce the region's fragility and its vulnerability to further fragmentation.

Geopolitical Risk Index

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