Global Risk Indexes (08-01-2025)

Global 95 (+1 ▲)
MENA 99 (+1 ▲)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 97 (+1 ▲)
Africa 87 ( —)
AMERs 96 (+2 ▲)
Markets 92 (-1 ▼)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Geopolitical Shifts in MENA: Gaza Struggles, Syria's Transition, and Regional Maneuvers

The Middle East enters a critical phase of geopolitical transition as Gaza's devastating war continues, Syria's post-Assad administration navigates governance challenges, and Turkey recalibrates its strategy in light of regional complexities. These interconnected developments demand coordinated international attention to avoid exacerbating long-standing instability.

The Gaza conflict remains a humanitarian and political flashpoint. With nearly 46,000 Palestinians dead and Gaza's infrastructure reduced to rubble, Israeli airstrikes persist unabated. Despite limited progress in Doha-mediated ceasefire talks, both Hamas and Israel maintain entrenched positions. Hamas' insistence on Israel's withdrawal clashes with Israel's demand for disarmament and hostages' release. These dynamics exacerbate regional polarization, while escalating casualties fuel international calls for accountability, including ICC warrants against Israeli and Hamas leaders. The potential for a broader regional backlash grows as post-war governance proposals, including UAE's provisional administration plans, face skepticism from Palestinians and international actors.

Syria's transitional government confronts mounting challenges in balancing international expectations with internal fragility. The newly proposed national dialogue conference, while ambitious in scope, risks alienating key stakeholders without robust inclusivity measures. Jordan and Syria's agreement on a joint security committee marks a cautious step toward regional cooperation, but Syria's continued reliance on illicit captagon revenues signals deeper economic vulnerabilities. Regional actors like Qatar and the UAE are stepping in with financial aid, aiming to stabilize Syria's post-Assad trajectory, but the country's fractured political landscape and dependence on external funding pose risks to sustainable recovery.

Turkey's dual focus on Kurdish militias and post-Assad reconstruction highlights its multifaceted strategy. While Ankara seeks to curb the YPG's influence through potential military operations, its outreach to Syria's Islamist rulers underscores Turkey's role as a critical stakeholder in shaping Syria's future. Simultaneously, Turkey's coordination with Iraq's Kurdish leadership reflects efforts to mitigate cross-border tensions. However, Erdogan's assertiveness risks straining ties with the U.S., given Washington's reliance on Kurdish forces against ISIS.

The Gulf's evolving economic and political strategies reveal resilience but also underscore structural dependencies. Saudi Arabia's $12 billion bond sale and the UAE's increased investments signal adaptive fiscal strategies amidst fluctuating oil markets. However, the region's reliance on energy revenues remains a key vulnerability, particularly as global energy transitions accelerate. The UAE's active diplomacy, including proposals for Gaza's governance, positions it as a pivotal actor in post-war stabilization efforts but also exposes it to regional criticism.

Strategic implications: The interconnected crises in Gaza, Syria, and the broader MENA region underscore the urgent need for integrated international strategies. The stakes are high, with unresolved conflicts threatening to entrench divisions and economic vulnerabilities undermining recovery efforts. As global actors engage with these issues, the region's trajectory will hinge on balancing immediate stabilization with long-term reforms to address its systemic challenges.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(08-01-2025)

The MENA region faces escalating volatility with the deepening Gaza conflict, Syria's transitional complexities, Turkey's assertive posture, and broader Gulf and regional recalibrations. These developments reflect a nexus of unresolved tensions, systemic vulnerabilities, and potential shifts in power alignments.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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