Global Risk Indexes (07-01-2025)

Global 94 (0 —)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 97 (+1 ▲)
Europe 96 ( —)
Africa 87 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 94 (+1 ▲)
Markets 93 (-1 ▼)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Unraveling Crises: Gaza's Stalemate, Syria's Fragility, and Gulf Adjustments

The Middle East stands at the crossroads of acute crises, from Israel's unrelenting operations in Gaza to the fragile transitions in Syria and strategic recalibrations in the Gulf. These developments not only threaten regional stability but also shape global security and economic trends.

Israel's protracted campaign in Gaza continues to devastate the enclave, with over 46,000 Palestinians killed since October 2023. The humanitarian situation has deteriorated sharply, exacerbated by the destruction of designated humanitarian zones like Al-Mawasi. Despite resumed ceasefire talks in Doha, entrenched positions'Israel's demand for Hamas' disarmament and Hamas' insistence on full withdrawal'underscore the intractable nature of this conflict. U.S. diplomatic pressure for a ceasefire before President Biden leaves office highlights the urgency but also the limits of international influence amidst deep-seated hostilities.

Syria's new Islamist administration faces profound governance and economic hurdles as it attempts to stabilize a nation devastated by war. While the central bank's unification of exchange rates and a $400 million recovery plan for frozen assets signal initial reforms, the structural reliance on illicit revenues like captagon reflects deeper systemic issues. The UAE's overtures for regional reintegration provide cautious optimism, but the lack of a comprehensive international strategy for Syria's recovery remains a glaring gap.

Turkey's escalating confrontation with Kurdish factions in Syria signals Ankara's intent to assert regional dominance. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's declaration of the YPG's imminent eradication illustrates this aggressive posture. While Turkey's alignment with certain Syrian actors aligns with its strategic goals, its hardline policies risk alienating Western allies, including the U.S., which relies on Kurdish forces for counter-ISIS operations. Concurrently, Turkey's $7 billion investment in petrochemicals reflects an ambition to fortify its economic self-reliance amid geopolitical pressures.

Gulf economic recalibrations highlight resilience amid volatility. Saudi Arabia's $12 billion bond sale underscores its fiscal agility, while the UAE's robust private sector growth demonstrates adaptability. However, the region's dependency on oil markets remains a structural vulnerability, particularly as energy markets shift toward renewables and diversified supply chains.

Yemen's escalating tensions amid Israeli and U.S. strikes on Houthi-controlled areas exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, complicating the U.N.'s mediation efforts. Yemen's alignment with broader Middle Eastern conflicts, especially in Gaza, highlights its strategic role as both a flashpoint and a proxy arena for regional rivalries.

Strategic Implications: The region's intersecting crises necessitate coordinated international responses to address the human and geopolitical consequences of conflict, governance failures, and economic dependencies. Absent substantive reforms and inclusive diplomatic strategies, MENA's stability will remain precarious, with ramifications far beyond its borders.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(07-01-2025)

The MENA region remains a theater of intertwined challenges including Gaza's humanitarian catastrophe, Syria's complex post-conflict governance, and strategic recalibrations in Turkey and the Gulf. This intricate web of conflicts and economic dependencies underscores the region's role as a geopolitical flashpoint with far-reaching global implications.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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