Global Risk Indexes (07-01-2025)

Global 94 (0 —)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 97 (+1 ▲)
Europe 96 ( —)
Africa 87 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 94 (+1 ▲)
Markets 93 (-1 ▼)
Mei Ling, Asia Pacific region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mei Ling

Empowering minds, shaping decisions: Insights from the heart of geopolitics

Asia-Pacific Geopolitics: Strategic Rivalries, Leadership Crises, and Economic Adjustments Shape the Region

The Asia-Pacific region's geopolitical trajectory continues to be shaped by intersecting political, military, and economic pressures, where domestic instability and strategic maneuvering are redefining the balance of power.

South Korea's prolonged governance crisis highlights the dangers of institutional paralysis amid escalating internal divisions. The ongoing standoff between Yoon Suk Yeol's defense team and the Corruption Investigation Office underscores the erosion of institutional trust, exacerbating public discontent and weakening investor confidence. With the won depreciating and critical industries like semiconductors facing headwinds, South Korea's strategic standing in the Indo-Pacific is increasingly vulnerable. This instability offers adversaries like North Korea and China an opportunity to exploit Seoul's distractions, further destabilizing the region.

North Korea's recent hypersonic missile test demonstrates significant advancements in military technology, particularly with solid-fuel designs that enhance missile survivability and reduce detection time. This launch, coinciding with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's diplomatic tour, underscores Pyongyang's intent to assert strategic leverage amidst regional tensions. The test reflects deeper integration between North Korea and Russia's military strategies, complicating U.S. and allied efforts to maintain stability in Northeast Asia.

China's increasingly assertive grey-zone operations against Taiwan are exemplified by the severing of undersea communications cables, reportedly by a Chinese vessel. These tactics, coupled with cyberattacks and military drills, represent a broader strategy aimed at incrementally eroding Taiwan's resilience and testing the resolve of its international partners. Taiwan's outreach to South Korea for assistance highlights the importance of multilateral cooperation in countering these threats, though regional responses remain constrained by political and economic pressures.

Indonesia's formal accession to BRICS signals a strategic alignment with emerging economic powers seeking to challenge Western-led financial systems. By joining this bloc, Jakarta enhances its geopolitical influence and reinforces BRICS' capacity to advocate for Global South interests. However, Indonesia must carefully balance its new alignment with its commitments to ASEAN and Western economic partners, ensuring it remains a bridge between competing global frameworks.

The South China Sea remains a critical flashpoint as the Philippines escalates its responses to China's increasingly assertive maritime strategies. Manila's deployment of air and naval assets to counter Beijing's 'monster' coast guard vessel underscores its determination to defend sovereignty. However, this militarized approach raises the risk of miscalculation and unintended escalation, necessitating a careful balance between deterrence and diplomacy.

The Asia-Pacific is at a crossroads where domestic instability and international rivalries are converging to reshape the region's geopolitical landscape. Effective coordination among stakeholders will be essential to addressing these intersecting risks and fostering a stable and resilient regional order.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Asia Pacific
(07-01-2025)

The Asia-Pacific region remains a critical theater of strategic competition, shaped by systemic governance failures, military advancements, and contested sovereignty. Deepening political divides, resource-driven disputes, and evolving alliances are creating a fragile environment with far-reaching global implications.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Asia Pacific (See All Global)

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