Global Risk Indexes (04-01-2025)

Global 93 (-1 ▼)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 96 ( —)
Europe 95 ( —)
Africa 85 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 93 (+1 ▲)
Markets 92 (-4 ▼)
Mei Ling, Asia Pacific region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mei Ling

Empowering minds, shaping decisions: Insights from the heart of geopolitics

Asia-Pacific Geopolitics: Leadership Turmoil, Sovereignty Disputes, and Strategic Realignments Shape Regional Tensions

The Asia-Pacific continues to be defined by profound political crises, assertive military strategies, and economic policy shifts that reflect the evolving power dynamics of the region.

South Korea: Leadership Crisis Escalates Amid Political Gridlock: Acting President Choi Sang-mok's commitment to maintaining trilateral cooperation with the U.S. and Japan contrasts sharply with the deepening political chaos at home. The unprecedented dual impeachment of South Korea's top leaders, coupled with the dramatic failure to arrest President Yoon Suk Yeol, highlights a governance vacuum undermining Seoul's ability to navigate regional security challenges. Choi's assurances of diplomatic stability may struggle to mask the fractures in South Korea's domestic political structure, which risk weakening its role in Indo-Pacific security frameworks.

China-India Water Dispute and Regional Rivalries: India's formal protest against China's massive hydropower project on the Yarlung Zangbo River underscores the growing strategic competition over shared resources. The dam's construction threatens the ecological and economic stability of downstream nations, including India and Bangladesh, exacerbating longstanding tensions between the Asian giants. Beijing's dismissal of environmental concerns reflects its broader strategy of leveraging natural resources for geopolitical gain, further straining Sino-Indian relations.

Philippines' Security Council Reshuffle Reflects Political Realignments: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s exclusion of Vice President Sara Duterte from the National Security Council highlights a significant political realignment within Manila's power structure. This move, aimed at strengthening national security governance, comes amidst rising tensions in the South China Sea and a strategic pivot toward deepening U.S.-Philippine defense ties. However, domestic political divisions may complicate Manila's ability to respond cohesively to regional challenges.

Myanmar's Independence Day Amnesty Amid Ongoing Conflict: The junta's release of nearly 6,000 prisoners, including foreign detainees, marks a rare conciliatory gesture amidst continued international condemnation. However, the military's broader strategy to entrench its rule through controversial elections and systemic repression ensures that Myanmar remains a focal point of instability in Southeast Asia. The exclusion of key political figures like Aung San Suu Kyi from the amnesty underscores the junta's unwillingness to engage in meaningful reconciliation.

Economic Realignments Across the Region: Vietnam's decision to abolish duty exemptions for low-cost imports reflects its effort to balance fiscal policy with domestic market protection, signaling a shift toward greater economic self-reliance. Meanwhile, Malaysia's crackdown on undocumented Myanmar migrants highlights the interplay between migration policy and national security amidst Southeast Asia's ongoing humanitarian crises.

The Asia-Pacific's geopolitical trajectory in 2025 will be shaped by the intersection of political instability, resource competition, and strategic realignments. Regional powers and international stakeholders must navigate these complexities with precision to mitigate risks and maintain stability in this contested region.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Asia Pacific
(04-01-2025)

The Asia-Pacific region faces compounded challenges with deepening political instability, strategic military posturing, and complex economic policies. The region's trajectory is marked by leadership crises, sovereignty disputes, and economic realignments, presenting a volatile landscape with global implications.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Asia Pacific (See All Global)

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