Global Risk Indexes (04-01-2025)

Global 93 (-1 ▼)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 96 ( —)
Europe 95 ( —)
Africa 85 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 93 (+1 ▲)
Markets 92 (-4 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Economic Restructuring, Resource Conflicts, and Security Interventions Reshape the Americas' Strategic Landscape

Economic restructuring and resource governance dominate the Americas' agenda. Argentina's push to privatize Aerolineas Argentinas underscores President Javier Milei's broader libertarian reforms. While trimming government subsidies has improved fiscal performance, it has also stoked union opposition and public unrest. The plan to privatize or liquidate the state carrier highlights the complexities of balancing fiscal discipline with social equity, particularly in a geographically expansive nation reliant on air connectivity.

In Venezuela, rising oil exports reflect a mixed economic trajectory. A 10.5% increase in oil exports last year provided critical revenue to stabilize the economy, but these gains remain precarious. With President-elect Donald Trump poised to impose stricter sanctions, the Maduro regime faces renewed economic isolation. Venezuela's reliance on exports to U.S. and Chinese markets highlights the geopolitical risks of overdependence on limited trade partners amidst fluctuating energy dynamics.

Resource conflicts escalate in Brazil as violence against Indigenous communities intensifies. The attack on Av' Guarani people in Paran' state reflects broader tensions over land rights and environmental exploitation. This violence exposes systemic governance failures in protecting vulnerable populations and managing land-use conflicts, jeopardizing Brazil's international commitments to sustainability and Indigenous rights.

Security interventions in Haiti gain traction but reveal deeper challenges. The arrival of Guatemalan and Salvadoran contingents to bolster the U.N.-backed mission underscores the region's collaborative efforts to address Haiti's gang violence. However, the mission's inability to prevent escalating violence and territorial losses reveals limitations in coordination and capacity, emphasizing the need for sustained international commitment and comprehensive governance reforms.

Energy policy shifts in the United States signal long-term implications for regional energy dynamics. President Joe Biden's upcoming ban on new offshore oil and gas development across 625 million acres marks a significant milestone in decarbonization efforts. While it aligns with global climate goals, the decision has triggered debates over energy independence and economic impacts, particularly for Gulf Coast economies dependent on energy production.

Short-term risks include escalating resource conflicts in Brazil, economic challenges in Argentina, and renewed sanctions on Venezuela. Long-term stability in the Americas will require addressing governance deficits, fostering multilateral cooperation, and balancing economic diversification with sustainability in an increasingly competitive global order.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(04-01-2025)

The Americas region continues to face multifaceted challenges, including governance instability, resource conflicts, migration crises, and economic restructuring. Diplomatic tensions, energy policy shifts, and security dynamics further complicate the landscape, demanding coordinated responses to maintain stability and leverage strategic opportunities.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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