Global Risk Indexes (06-01-2025)

Global 94 (0 —)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 96 ( —)
Europe 96 ( —)
Africa 85 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 93 (-1 ▼)
Markets 94 (-1 ▼)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

MENA's Geopolitical Crossroads: Gaza Escalations, Syrian Governance, and Gulf Realignments

The Middle East's complex geopolitical landscape continues to evolve as regional powers navigate intensifying conflicts, governance transitions, and economic adjustments. The escalating situation in Gaza, Syria's post-Assad governance hurdles, and Gulf economic realignments remain critical to shaping the region's near-term trajectory.

Israel's military operations in Gaza show no signs of abating, with over 100 Palestinians killed in weekend strikes. The devastation in Al-Mawasi, a designated humanitarian zone, underscores the acute humanitarian crisis, with nearly 45,800 Palestinian fatalities reported since October 2023. Ceasefire talks mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States continue in Doha but face significant challenges. Hamas' approval of a list of 34 hostages for exchange highlights potential progress, but Israel's demands for Hamas' disarmament and withdrawal reflect deep divisions. These dynamics underscore the complexity of achieving a sustainable resolution amid entrenched hostilities.

Syria's transitional administration, under HTS leadership, faces both internal and external challenges in consolidating governance. Efforts to rebuild the state include a 400% salary hike for public sector employees, financed through regional aid and the recovery of frozen assets. However, these measures must address systemic corruption and societal divisions exacerbated by Assad's legacy. The U.S. decision to ease restrictions on humanitarian aid reflects cautious engagement with Syria's Islamist rulers, emphasizing the need for inclusivity and counterterrorism cooperation. Meanwhile, Syria's overtures to Gulf states, including Qatar, indicate a strategic pivot toward regional reintegration and economic recovery.

Turkey's intensified operations against PKK militants in northern Syria and Iraq illustrate Ankara's dual approach of military assertiveness and strategic diplomacy. President Erdogan's praise for Syria's new leadership's stance against separatists reflects Ankara's alignment with HTS in preserving Syria's territorial integrity. However, Turkey's policies risk straining ties with Western allies, particularly the U.S., which continues to rely on Kurdish forces as key partners against ISIS.

Gulf economic dynamics reveal resilience amidst global uncertainties. The UAE's non-oil private sector grew at its fastest pace in nine months, driven by robust domestic demand, while Saudi Arabia's fiscal recalibrations emphasize balancing public debt with diversification goals. Rising oil prices, supported by China's recovery, provide short-term relief but highlight the Gulf's reliance on volatile energy markets. The region's economic strategies will need to align with broader geopolitical and market realities to sustain growth.

Strategic implications: The interconnected crises in Gaza, Syria, and the Gulf demand coordinated international interventions to address escalating conflicts, governance gaps, and economic vulnerabilities. Without comprehensive efforts to resolve these issues, the region risks further destabilization, with significant implications for global security and economic stability.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(06-01-2025)

The MENA region faces acute risks due to escalating conflicts in Gaza, Syria's transitional governance complexities, Turkey's assertive regional policies, and shifting Gulf economic dynamics. These interconnected crises demand urgent international attention to mitigate prolonged instability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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